Mandate-readiness proxy for sustainability-sensitive institutional capital (SFDR Article 9 funds, state pension ESG carveouts, impact-oriented separate accounts). Synthesizes six factor groups into a single 0-100 score and band: ESG composite (25%), climate transition risk (20%), physical climate / geographic risk (20%), insurance burden and insurability (15%), disclosure completeness (10%), asset-class mandate fit (10%). Asset-class fit table maps each property type to a fit score with institutional rationale (Multifamily 80, Mixed-Use 75, Retail 55, Industrial 60, Office 45, Hotel 40). Bands: mandate-aligned (>=80, no severe gating), conditionally-aligned (65-79, manageable diligence items), transition-plan-required (50-64, material mitigation or documentation needed), mandate-constrained (<50 or severe gating risk), not-assessable (fewer than four factor groups scorable). Severe gating triggers: physical climate risk >=70, transition risk >=70, insurance load >=80 bps of value, ESG composite <45. Surfaces per-cohort proxy fit (Article 9 vs state pension ESG carveout) and disclosure readiness tier (institutional / partial / thin / not-assessable). Each factor group renders with weight, contribution, status (positive / watch / negative / unknown), and an interpretation tied to upstream module outputs. Gating risks and underwriting actions surface concrete diligence steps (commission GRESB benchmark, build transition plan, bind multi-carrier insurance, expand data room). This is a mandate-readiness proxy, not a legal, tax, or regulatory certification.
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Phase 3 begins: live market data overlay (FRED Treasury / SOFR / CPI / inflation expectations) + 18 more institutional analytics. Live macro frame, deal-vs-market positioning, deterministic engine guarantee preserved (Cherry Street regression byte-identical with seeded fallbacks). 90 modules shipped today.
META synthesis placing us in the broader US business cycle, the IC chair's "where are we in the cycle?" question answered via 8 weighted macro indicators. Components: live yield curve 2-10 (from FRED snapshot), real GDP growth YoY, ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Services PMI, unemployment rate, housing starts annualized, Conference Board Leading Indicators 6-month, consumer confidence. Mid-2026 reading: positive yield curve +10 bps (recently normalized from inversion); GDP +2.5% YoY (moderate); ISM Mfg 51 (slight expansion); ISM Services 54 (expansion); UR 4.0% (full employment); housing starts 1.4M (recovering); Leading Indicators +0.3% (modestly positive); consumer confidence 105 (above neutral). Composite classification: mid-expansion phase, 85% confidence, 1.5 years into current 2025-? expansion cycle. Forward 6-month outlook: stable. Cycle phase bands: recovery / early-expansion / mid-expansion / late-expansion / peak / recession / early-contraction. CRE implications by phase: early-cycle = cap compression begins, best vintage for new deployment, aggressive growth-stage acquisitions favored; mid-cycle = cap rates stable to compressing, standard institutional underwriting, quality-focused acquisitions; late-cycle = cap rates firming then widening, defensive positioning, lower LTV + longer fixed-rate debt, cushion in exit cap; peak = profit-taking, new acquisitions selective and discount-focused, avoid speculation; contraction = opportunistic/distressed focus, liquidity protection essential. Historical US expansion cycles surfaced: 1991-2001 (10yr S&L recovery + dot-com), 2001-2007 (6yr pre-GFC), 2009-2020 (11yr longest, GFC recovery), 2020-2022 (2.5yr COVID), 2022-2024 (soft landing), 2025-? current. The third leg of macro context (alongside Capital Cycle Health Score + Final Composite Verdict). Requires live market snapshot.
Starting 2024, multiple major US jurisdictions imposed binding building emissions standards with penalties. These mandates require capex for emissions-reducing retrofits and impose penalties for non-compliance, real $$ pulled from NOI. Total mandatory US CRE capex through 2030: $60B+. Major jurisdictions with mandates: NYC Local Law 97 ($268/MtCO2e penalty, $20B+ industry capex, $8.5/SF estimated, severe impact, fully effective 2030); California Title 24 ($15B+, phased retrofit on major renovation, $6.5/SF); Washington Clean Buildings Performance Standard ($5/sf/yr penalty, $5B, $5.5/SF, effective 2026-2031); Massachusetts Climate Action + Boston BERDO 2.0 ($4B, $5/SF, per-building annual penalty); DC Building Energy Performance Standards ($3B, $4.5/SF, ENERGY STAR/EUI-based); Colorado HB21-1286 + Denver Energize Denver ($2.5B, $4/SF); Oregon Climate Protection Program ($2B); Maryland Building Performance Standards ($1.5B). Sector impact: Office older buildings severe (NYC LL97 exemplar); Hotel + Mixed-Use + MF in regulated jurisdictions + Data Centers material; Industrial + Retail moderate. Available financing programs: Fannie Mae Green Rewards (-20-30 bps spread, MF); Freddie Mac Green Up; NYC PACE + California CPACE (20-30yr amortization via property tax bill); MassSAVE utility rebates; DOE Loan Programs Office Title XVII (clean energy/retrofit >$25M); IRA Section 179D deduction ($2.50-5.00/SF); IRA Investment Tax Credit (30% for solar/battery). Module auto-detects jurisdiction from deal address; computes hold-period capex from sqft × per-SF rate; surfaces sector-specific impact and applicable financing programs. Auto-skips with informational note for unregulated markets. Production version pulls live from EPA Energy Star Portfolio Manager + state regulatory databases.
Public CRE ETFs + non-traded interval funds capture retail + advisor-channel capital appetite, the cleanest real-time signal of broad CRE sentiment outside institutional surveys. Aggregate AUM ~$97B across major tracked funds. YTD net flows +$1.0B = mid-cycle recovery. ETF SEGMENT: VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF $32B AUM (+$1.5B YTD, largest US REIT ETF, ~165 holdings, broad market exposure); XLRE SPDR Real Estate $7B (+$0.4B, S&P 500 REIT exposure 32 names, low-fee 0.09%); IYR iShares US Real Estate $4.5B (+$0.1B, legacy product); VNQI Vanguard Global ex-US Real Estate $3.5B (+$0.2B, USD weakness benefit); FREL Fidelity MSCI Real Estate $1.5B (+$0.08B, lowest-fee 0.084%, Fidelity platform); ICF iShares Cohen & Steers REIT $2.5B (concentrated top-30); REZ residential REIT focus $1B (+$0.05B). INTERVAL FUND SEGMENT: BREIT Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust $25B AUM (-$1.0B YTD, redemption queue largely resolved by Q2 2025, modest residual outflows continuing but pace materially slowed); SREIT Starwood Real Estate Income Trust $12B (-$0.5B, queue cleared earlier than BREIT); JLL Income Property Trust $7.5B (+$0.3B, advisor preference shift benefit). Interval fund queue status: modest (cleared from 2023 extreme; THE major retail CRE sentiment inflection point was mid-2025). Closed-end CRE funds at -3.5% discount to NAV (near normal). Retail appetite signal bands: strong / healthy / neutral / cautious / soft. Complements institutional sentiment surveys with public-market and wealth-channel signal. Production version pulls live from Morningstar fund flow data, Bloomberg ETF flow tracker, SEC fund filings (BREIT/SREIT/JLL prospectuses + repurchase plans).
Aggregator of 9 institutional CRE survey sources into a single sentiment indicator, the "buy-side reading" on the market. Sentiment leads transaction activity by 6-12 months. Sources aggregated: RCLCO Real Estate Conditions Index (58, quarterly survey of institutional investors, vs 35 trough in 2023 and 75 peak in 2021); ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast (60, semi-annual); Hines US Investor Survey (62, quarterly, constructive on Industrial + MF, distressed acquisition focus); NAIOP Industrial Sentiment Index (67, strongest sector survey, sustained conviction on reshoring + e-commerce + AI infrastructure); AFIRE Foreign Investor Survey (55, annual, shifting allocations toward Data Centers + Industrial); PREA Investor Outlook (60, quarterly, $1T+ in institutional capital, capital availability not the constraint); ULI Emerging Trends in Real Estate (56, annual flagship, "deals are getting done, slowly"); Bisnow Industry Confidence Survey (54); CCIM Quarterly Market Trends (58). Composite bands: bearish (<=30) / cautious (31-45) / neutral (46-55) / constructive (56-70) / exuberant (>70). Mid-2026 composite: ~59 (constructive). Per-sector sentiment: very-positive (Industrial, Data Centers); positive (Multifamily, Healthcare/Senior Housing, Single-Family Rentals BTR, Hotel); neutral (Self-Storage, Mixed-Use, Retail Strip); cautious (Office Trophy CBD); negative (Office Class B/C, Mall Class B/C). Key rising market themes: AI Infrastructure RE, Reshoring/Manufacturing Buildout, MF Recovery + Sunbelt Bottom, Climate-Aware Allocation, Bridge Lending Reopening, Cap Rate Compression Begins. Stable themes: Office Bifurcation, Distressed Acquisition Cycle. 6-month forward outlook explicit per band. Sentiment is the institutional "what does the market think" layer that complements quantitative signals (CMBS Delinquency, SLOOS, Bank CRE Exposure, etc.). Production version pulls live from each source's quarterly/annual publication.
Implied volatility (IV) from public REIT options markets is the cleanest forward-looking risk measure for CRE returns, and represents the market's collective forecast of future return uncertainty. Methodology: aggregate Black-Scholes-implied vol from at-the-money 12-month REIT options across the largest names in each sector, cross-checked against realized 30-day vol. Mid-2026 picture: Multifamily 18% (lowest, below historical 20%, recovery confidence + GSE stability, AvalonBay/EQR options pricing tight); Industrial 22% (institutional darling stability, near 5-yr lows reflecting reshoring + AI infrastructure confidence); Data Center 25% (above historical 22% reflecting AI cycle execution risk + hyperscaler concentration); Mixed-Use 26% (blend); Retail 28% (bifurcated, necessity 20% vs Mall 38%); Hotel 32% (below historical 35% as recovery momentum builds); Office 38% (historic peak vs 24% pre-COVID average, structural distress pricing, BXP/SLG/KRC options markets pricing 2-3 more years of elevated vol). Risk-adjusted Sharpe proxy = (Expected Return - Risk-Free) / IV; Industrial highest, Office below zero (negative risk-adjusted return). IV-RV spread surfaced (IV pricing future vs RV showing recent past); positive spread signals market expects MORE vol ahead beyond recent realized. 1-year return 68% confidence range computed: e.g. Multifamily +7.8% +/- 18% = (-10%, +25.8%). 5-year CAGR confidence range computed (vol scales by 1/sqrt(5) for CAGR). Vol signal bands: low-uncertainty / moderate / elevated / high / extreme. Material for risk-adjusted return calculations, confidence bands on modeled IRR, cross-sector relative risk, cost of equity estimation. Production version pulls live from CBOE REIT options chains + Bloomberg implied vol indices.
Public mortgage REITs (mREITs) hold portfolios of CMBS bonds + originate commercial mortgages. Their trading metrics (price/book, dividend coverage, NAV trend) are real-time market signals of commercial mortgage credit quality, CMBS bond pricing health, borrower default trajectory, and bridge lender economics. Mid-2026 index: avg P/Book 0.90x, dividend yield 11.5%, dividend coverage 1.05x, market cap total $19B. YTD +12%, TTM +18%. CMBS default rate 4.5% (-50 bps YoY = improving); loan modification rate 8.5%. Per-mREIT breakdown: Starwood Property Trust STWD 0.95x P/Book ($6.5B market cap, largest, diversified across mortgages + property + infrastructure, maintained dividend through 2023-2024 cycle, hospitality + infrastructure offsetting office exposure); Hannon Armstrong HASI 1.05x (climate finance focus, premium to book, differentiated); Blackstone Mortgage BXMT 0.92x ($3.4B, floating-rate office + MF senior mortgages, recovered from 2023 office stress, dividend back to growth trajectory); Ladder Capital LADR 0.88x (balance-sheet lending + securitization, mid-size); KKR Real Estate Finance KREF 0.87x (transitional commercial mortgages, smaller portfolio, book pressure from office workouts); Apollo Commercial ARI 0.85x (mezzanine layer absorbing more loss, higher yield reflects credit concerns); Arbor Realty ABR 0.78x ($2.5B, Sunbelt MF bridge stress, recovering as MF distress resolves but book under pressure). Credit health bands: robust (>=1.0x P/Book) / stable (>=0.92x) / watchful (>=0.85x) / stressed (>=0.75x) / dislocated (<0.75x). Forward indicators surfaced: special servicing normalizing from 2024 peak, bridge lending reopening selectively, MF Sunbelt distress moderating, office workout activity continuing, insurance + life co's regaining senior debt market share. Real-time public-market signal of commercial mortgage health that nobody else surfaces this directly. Production version pulls live mREIT prices vs analyst consensus book value.
Institutional capital rotates between CRE sectors over 5-7 year cycles. When a sector receives net INFLOW: cap rates compress and asset values appreciate. Net OUTFLOW: cap widening and value pressure. Capital rotation is among the most powerful forward-return signals; what institutional capital is choosing TODAY drives cap rates 2-3 years FORWARD. Mid-2026 rotation picture: STRONG INFLOW: Data Centers (+$85B TTM, $220B 5-yr cumulative; AI infrastructure tailwind; Blackstone/KKR/Brookfield/Digital Realty leading); Industrial (+$95B TTM, $380B 5-yr; sustained institutional darling, Prologis/Rexford dominant). INFLOW: Multifamily (+$65B TTM, $280B 5-yr, recovering from 2024 trough); Mixed-Use (+$25B, $90B); Healthcare (+$28B, $95B, demographic tailwind, Welltower/Ventas active); Net Lease (+$22B, $80B, defensive yield seekers); Hotel (+$18B, $45B, recovery momentum + RevPAR growth). STABLE: Self-Storage (+$8B, cycle moderate); Single-Family Rentals (+$15B, BTR maturing); Retail Strip (+$6B, stabilizing after years of outflow, necessity-anchored returning). OUTFLOW: Office (-$25B TTM, -$85B 5-yr, structural distress slowing as deep-distress entry plays emerge, CBD trophy stabilizing). STRONG OUTFLOW: Retail Mall (-$8B TTM, -$45B 5-yr, structural e-commerce displacement). Cycle position: mid-rotation (2024-2028 cycle, OUT of Office + Mall, INTO Data Centers + Industrial + Healthcare + MF). Forward 12-month consensus signals surfaced per sector with rationale. Production version pulls live from PREA Institutional Allocations Survey, NCREIF commitment tracker, Preqin private capital flows.
NCREIF (National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries) Property Index is the canonical institutional CRE total return benchmark, the index every CRE portfolio manager benchmarks against. Quarterly unlevered total return index of $700B+ institutional-grade properties owned by pension funds, endowments, insurance companies. Total Return = Income Return + Appreciation Return. Mid-2026 trailing 12-month: Total NPI +6.5% (income +4.5% + appreciation +2.0%); Apartments +7.8% (4.2% + 3.6%, NOI growth + appreciation); Industrial +9.5% (4.5% + 5.0%, sector leader with reshoring + AI demand); Retail +4.2% (5.0% + -0.8%, bifurcated necessity vs Class B/C); Office -2.5% (4.2% + -6.7%, only negative sector, CBD trophy at -10%, suburban -3%, medical office +4%); Hotel +8.5% (tracked separately, not in core NPI). 10-year compound annual: Industrial +12.5%, Apartments +8.8%, Total NPI +7.8%, Retail +5.5%, Office +4.5%. Deal projected IRR compared explicitly to applicable sector NPI with spread bps and benchmark band (well-above >=600 bps / above 200-600 / in-line +/-200 / below -200 to -600 / well-below). Recent 5-quarter trend surfaced (Q1 2026 +1.8% inflection point off Q1 2025 trough +0.3%). Income vs Appreciation contribution flagged: some sectors 100% income-driven (Retail, Office), others appreciation-driven (Industrial 50% appreciation contribution), material for understanding return composition. LP target returns are typically benchmarked to NPI returns + alpha; this is the literal benchmark institutional allocators use when evaluating private CRE fund commitments. Production version pulls live from NCREIF quarterly publications.
Hotel deal underwriting requires market-specific RevPAR ($) and growth assumptions. National averages mask massive variation: NYC at $295 vs Houston at $130. Within each market, chain scale further fragments: Luxury $385 vs Economy $70. Module surfaces market-level RevPAR + ADR + Occupancy + 12-month YoY growth + vs 2019 peak recovery status. Mid-2026 picture: US sector fully recovered from 2020 trough except SF (-22% vs 2019, recovery upside +9% YoY) and DC (-2%). Leisure markets at +5 to +22% vs 2019 peak. Top markets by RevPAR: NYC $295 (strongest, +7% YoY, ADR all-time highs), Honolulu $290 (+5%, international tourism recovery, Waikiki premium), LA $215 (+4%, diverse demand), Miami $210 (+6%, +18% vs 2019, LatAm wealth flight), Boston $200 (+5%, Eds & Meds anchor), Washington DC $185 (+4%, government anchor), Las Vegas $185 (+5%, +15% vs 2019, ResortsWorld/Fontainebleau absorbed), San Francisco $170 (+9% YoY, biggest recovery upside), Orlando $165 (+4%), Phoenix $155 (+5%, Scottsdale resort strength), Nashville $145 (+3%, +22% vs 2019 explosion sustained), New Orleans $135, Chicago $135 (+5%, convention recovery), Houston $130, Atlanta $125, Tampa $145 (+5%, +17% vs 2019). Chain scale: Luxury $385 +5% (Four Seasons, Ritz, St. Regis, Mandarin) / Upper Upscale $245 +5% (Marriott Marquis, Westin) / Upscale $165 +4% (Courtyard, Hampton Inn) / Upper Midscale $115 +3% / Midscale $95 +2% / Economy $70 +1%. Segment recovery: leisure fully recovered + at premium; business transient ~95% of 2019; group/convention ~90% and rising; international inbound recovering (Asia + LatAm strong, Europe slower); government stable. ADR vs Occupancy growth balance flagged (best quality = both growing, like NYC and Miami). Market strength bands: very-strong / strong / healthy / recovering / lagging. Auto-applies to Hotel deals. Production version pulls live from STR / CoStar Hospitality / AHLA / Smith Travel Research.
$350B+ in announced US manufacturing investments since 2022 driven by federal incentives: CHIPS Act ($52B direct subsidies + $24B tax credits, semiconductors), Inflation Reduction Act ($370B 10-year tax credits for clean energy / EV), Bipartisan Infrastructure Law ($1.2T), DPA Title III (strategic materials), USMCA near-shoring (Mexico FDI $40B+ continuing). Major beneficiary states with project detail: Texas $85B (Samsung Austin $25B semis, Tesla Gigafactory $10B+, TI Sherman $30B over phases, Apple Austin $1B+); Arizona $75B (TSMC Phoenix $65B in phase 1+2, Intel Chandler Fab 52 $20B, LG Energy Queen Creek $5.5B); New York $40B (Micron Clay $40B over 20yrs, GlobalFoundries Saratoga $10B); Ohio $35B (Intel Ohio One $28B phase 1, Honda EV battery JV $3.5B); Georgia $35B (Hyundai Metaplant $7.6B, SK Battery $5B, Rivian $5B, Qcells $2.5B); North Carolina $25B (Toyota Liberty $13.9B, VinFast $4B, Apple RTP $1B, Wolfspeed $5B); Tennessee $20B (Ford BlueOval City $5.6B); Indiana $15B (Stellantis StarPlus $2.5B); Michigan $15B (Ford/GM/Stellantis EV); Kentucky $12B (Ford BlueOval SK $5.8B). Sector breakdown: Semiconductors $165B, EV Batteries $85B, EV Manufacturing $50B, Solar $25B, Heavy Industrial $15B, Pharma reshoring $10B. Industrial impact bands: transformative (>=$60B) / material ($25-60B) / moderate ($10-25B) / minimal ($3-10B) / none. Each $1B in mfg investment typically generates 2,000-5,000 jobs requiring housing within 30-mile radius; supplier ecosystem demand within 50-150 mile radius typically 2-3x direct site demand. Adjacent market spillover identified for each state (e.g. Hyundai Metaplant GA → Charleston SC port + Savannah logistics). Critical for Industrial deals but material for MF/Mixed-Use/Retail/Hotel in beneficiary markets. Production version pulls live from White House Investing in America Tracker, Brookings Manufacturing Investment Dashboard, SelectUSA, state economic development agencies.
CMBS bonds are issued in tranches by credit rating (AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, B). Each tier prices at a spread over the 10Y Treasury. The shape of the spread curve tells you (1) how institutional capital is pricing each tier of risk, (2) whether credit markets are stressed or healthy, (3) the cost of debt for each layer of the capital stack, (4) where the AAA-eligible vs mezz boundary is priced. Mid-2026 spreads: AAA +110 bps (very tight, strong institutional demand from insurance + pension); AA +175 bps (high-grade subordinate); A +275 bps (mezz-eligible boundary where mezzanine competes with subordinate CMBS); BBB +475 bps (lowest IG, hedge fund + insurance demand drives, direct competition with private mezz); BB +750 bps (B-piece territory for opportunistic capital + private credit funds); B +1200 bps (deep B-piece, specialized buyers like Eightfold, Rialto, KKR). BBB-AAA spread 365 bps measures credit curve steepness (historical norm ~325 bps). Credit market regimes: compressed (BBB-AAA <250 bps, frothy conditions) / healthy / moderate-stress (300-400 bps) / stressed (400-600 bps) / dislocated (>600 bps). 12-month trend AAA -25 bps + BBB -75 bps = credit market improving. Capital stack implied pricing surfaced: Senior CMBS (60-65% LTV) = AAA + ~40 bps servicing; Mezzanine (65-75%) = BBB + ~125 bps mezz premium; Preferred Equity (75-80%) = BB + ~150 bps premium; Implied Common Equity = B + ~250 bps equity premium. Distinct from SLOOS (bank lending standards) and Bank CRE Exposure (balance sheet): this is the SECURITIZATION market pricing layer. Critical for designing the capital stack. Requires live market snapshot.
An inverted yield curve (short rates higher than long) has preceded every US recession in the past 60 years. The Fed-favorite measure is 3-month vs 10-year spread; the market-favorite is 2-year vs 10-year. Lead time from initial inversion to recession: 6-24 months. Critically, the curve UN-INVERTS in the 0-6 months BEFORE recession begins; that's the most dangerous window. Module computes live spreads from FRED Treasury data (3mo, 2yr, 5yr, 10yr, 30yr), classifies curve shape (steeply-inverted / modestly-inverted / flat / modestly-positive / steeply-positive), and assesses recession signal (imminent / elevated-risk / normalizing / low-risk / expansion-confirmed) with estimated lead-time months. Historical analogs: 2022 inversion → 2024 soft landing scenario (24-month lead, no NBER recession); 2019 → 2020 COVID (6-month lead, V-shaped recovery); 2006 → Dec 2007 GFC (18-month lead, 35-45% CRE price decline); 2000 → 2001 dot-com (8-month lead, 15-20% CRE repricing); 1988 → 1990 S&L crisis (19-month lead, RTC distress). CRE-specific implications by curve shape: steeply inverted = late-cycle stress (cap rates widened 100+ bps in 2000/2006/2008); modestly inverted = recession warning (50-100 bps cap widening typical); normalizing = late-cycle WATCH window; modestly positive = healthy conditions; steeply positive = expansion-confirmed (cap compression typical). 5-30 term premium also surfaced as signal of long-end conditions and life co lender competitiveness. Requires live market snapshot.
The cleanest signal of pricing power and tenant demand in industrial real estate. When a lease expires and re-leases at market rent, the spread between expiring and new rent tells you: (1) how much landlords are capturing on each rollover, (2) whether the market is pricing-power constrained, (3) forward NOI growth from existing portfolio. Mid-2026 picture: National avg +18% mark-to-market on renewals (down from 2022 peak of +42%, 12-month trend -300 bps normalizing). Per-market spread: Atlanta +22% (strongest, logistics + Hyundai EV plant); Dallas-Fort Worth +20% (reshoring + central distribution); South Florida Miami +18% (LatAm trade gateway, constrained supply); Northern NJ +16% (East Coast port); Phoenix +15% (TSMC/Intel reshoring); Memphis +14% (FedEx hub); Seattle/Tacoma +14% (Pacific gateway); Inland Empire +12% (cooling from +35% peak as supply absorbed); Chicago +12% (balanced supply/demand); Houston +16% (Gulf Coast chemical industry). Class breakdown: Class A Modern (post-2015, 32'+ clear height, ESFR sprinklers) +22%; Class A Mid-Generation (2005-2015) +16%; Class B (1990-2005) +11%; Class C (pre-1990) +6%. Tenant credit tier impact: Investment Grade (Amazon, FedEx, UPS) +14%; Strong Private (top-tier 3PL, retailers) +18%; Smaller Private/Local +22%; Speculative/Startups +25%. Pricing power signal bands: exceptional (>=25%) / strong (18-24%) / healthy (12-17%) / moderating (6-11%) / weakening (<6%). Auto-applies to Industrial deals; skips others. Production version pulls live from Prologis / Rexford earnings calls, CBRE Industrial Insights, JLL Industrial Outlook.
Projects the deal's asset class cap rate over the hold period using LIVE FRED 10Y Treasury + Fed dot-plot consensus forward path + historical Cap-Treasury spread mean-reversion. Methodology: Forward Cap = Forward 10Y Treasury + Historical Mean Spread + Linear Spread Mean-Reversion. Forward 10Y path uses Fed dot-plot consensus: -25 bps in Year 1, -40 bps Y2, -65 bps Y3, -90 bps Y4, -110 bps Y5, -125 bps long-run normal. Spread mean-reverts linearly over 5-7 years to historical asset-class norm (MF 200 bps, Industrial 250 bps, Office 350 bps, Retail 325 bps, Hotel 450 bps, Mixed-Use 250 bps). Output: per-year projected 10Y Treasury + implied cap rate with ±35 bps confidence band; recommended exit cap at hold year; comparison vs deal's modeled exit cap; expected forward cycle position (recovery: compression tailwind / mid-cycle: stable / late-cycle: widening). Critical institutional question answered: should I model exit cap higher, lower, or equal to entry, and by how much? The deal's modeled exit cap should match the forward path OR have a defensible thesis for the deviation (e.g. specific market dynamics, value-add execution). Requires live market snapshot. Distinct from Cap-Treasury Spread (snapshot relative-value) and Rate Sensitivity (rate-shock scenarios): this is the FORWARD PATH PROJECTION over the deal hold.