Federal Reserve quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS), published since 1990, the canonical real-time read on bank lending standards by asset class. Surveys ~75 large US banks plus US branches of foreign banks. Net % tightening (positive = tightening) is the headline metric. When net tightening crosses 50%, historical data shows bank CRE lending volume falls 30-40% in subsequent 4 quarters. Mid-2026 Q1 SLOOS seeded picture: overall CRE +18% (modestly tightening, off the +60% peak in 2023; trajectory normalizing); Construction & Development +30% (most stressed); Multifamily +12% (most stable, GSE conforming demand cushions banks); Nonfarm Nonresidential +22% (Office still acutely tight). Module maps property type to applicable SLOOS segment, surfaces the segment-level net tightening, 4-quarter trend direction, historical percentile vs 10-year history, and demand strength reading. Severity bands: loose / neutral / tightening / tight / credit-crunch. Deal implications by severity (alternative debt source recommendations under credit-crunch, lender outreach strategy under tight, term/spread expectations under tightening). Forward-looking note explains historical resolution timelines (2008-2010: 8 quarters; 2020 pandemic: 2 quarters sharp recovery; 2022-2024 normalization: 6+ quarters). Distinct from CMBS Delinquency (backward-looking realized stress) and Lender Risk Rating (deal-level): SLOOS is the FORWARD-LOOKING lender appetite signal. Production version pulls live from FRED series DRTSCLM (commercial real estate tightening, published 6 weeks post-quarter-end).
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Phase 3 begins: live market data overlay (FRED Treasury / SOFR / CPI / inflation expectations) + 18 more institutional analytics. Live macro frame, deal-vs-market positioning, deterministic engine guarantee preserved (Cherry Street regression byte-identical with seeded fallbacks). 90 modules shipped today.
Real-time CMBS loan performance, the cleanest institutional read on sector-level CRE stress. Sourced from Trepp / KBRA / Fitch monthly disclosures. Mid-2026 seeded picture: Office at 10.5% 60+ delinquency, 13% special servicing = acute-stress epicenter (WFH + 10yr maturity wall + record special servicing volume); Retail at 6.2% bifurcated (grocery-anchored stable, Class B/C malls 12%+); Hotel recovered to 5.8% (leisure + ADR pricing power); Multifamily 3.8% rising from Sunbelt 2021-2022 floating-rate vintage rate-cap crisis; Industrial 1.8% structurally cleanest. Module surfaces 4 key metrics: 60+ day delinquency rate, special servicing rate, 12-month trend (bps direction), historical percentile vs 10-year history. Plus per-vintage stress breakdown (2014-2016 Office at 18% vs GSE MF at 1.8%), sector narrative explaining the trajectory, deal implications (sector cap premium, lender appetite, exit liquidity expectations), and severity bands (low-stress / moderate-stress / elevated-stress / acute-stress). Production version pulls live from Trepp API or KBRA Issue Tracker. Critical IC context for asset-class-relative pricing decisions: what cap rate premium should Office command vs Industrial? What's the trajectory of stress (worsening or improving)? Module surfaces both the snapshot and the direction.
Contextualizes the deal's senior loan maturity within the $2.7T CRE refi wall (2024-2027). The wall: $300-400B of 2020 vintage 5yr loans matured into 2025; ~$400B of 2021 5yr cohort maturing through 2026; 2017 10yr loans maturing 2027 at deep pre-COVID basis; 2019 7yr loans maturing 2026 at peak-valuation basis. Each cohort has a distinct narrative: 2020-2021 is the peak-distress epicenter (low-rate origination + peak valuations + acute refi gap into current 5.5-7% rates); 2022 is rising-rate vintage; post-2023 is well-positioned. Module identifies the deal's specific cohort, surfaces the cohort-level institutional context (sizing, valuation backdrop, observed lender behavior), estimates refi rate at maturity using live FRED 10Y Treasury + Fed-path consensus (stable to 2026, 40 bps lower by 2027, 75-100 bps lower 2028+) + 125 bps CMBS AAA spread, calculates the refi gap in bps vs the modeled coupon, and recommends preparation timeline + strategy. Bands: well-positioned / manageable-wall / wall-exposure / wall-epicenter. Severity: minimal / moderate / elevated / critical. Distinct from Refi Rate Risk (rate-shift sensitivity table) and Phase 1 Refi feature (cash math): this is the macro-narrative layer answering 'is this deal IN the wall, and if so, what does the wall look like for this specific cohort?' Cherry Street (2026 origination, 7yr term → 2033 maturity): well-positioned, outside the active wall window.
Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of tenant industry concentration. Existing tenant concentration module covers single-tenant share + rollover concentration; this complements with industry diversification. HHI math: sum of squared percentage shares × 10,000. Antitrust bands map cleanly to CRE industry diversification: <1,500 unconcentrated (diversified), 1,500-2,500 moderately concentrated, >2,500 highly concentrated, >7,500 effectively single-sector. Industry inference via tenant-name keywords across 13 sectors (Technology, Financial Services, Healthcare, Legal & Professional, Government, Education, Retail F&B, Retail Apparel, Retail General, Personal Services, Logistics & Industrial, Hospitality, Media & Entertainment). Production version pulls NAICS codes from lease abstracts. Per-industry breakdown: rent share, tenant count, ordered by share. Surfaces 'this deal IS a bet on industry X's trajectory' for single-sector cases, institutional read material when sector cycles (tech retrenchment, retail apocalypse, biotech funding) materially affect deal performance. Auto-renders only on rent-roll deals (Office / Retail / Mixed-Use).
Detects sale-leaseback (SLB) characteristics (single corporate tenant occupying 90%+ of leasable area on a 10+ year lease) and surfaces SLB-specific risks the canonical engine bands miss. SLB is a distinct institutional category: property value is essentially the PV of tenant's contractual rent. Critical diligence priorities surfaced: (1) Tenant Credit Concentration (investment-grade BBB+ supports tight cap; HY B/BB requires 150+ bps premium), (2) Residual Value Risk (specialty industrial / office often have limited alternative uses post-lease), (3) Rent Escalation Structure (fixed escalators below CPI = real rent compression), (4) Extension Option Asymmetry (tenant-controlled, if asset compresses they walk, if appreciates they extend and capture spread), (5) Landlord Capex Carve-Outs (even NNN typically carves out structural / roof / HVAC). Auto-detects with high/medium/low confidence; renders only when SLB signatures match. Composite risk score 0-100 with bands: tenant-credit-clean / tenant-credit-watch / tenant-credit-risk. Material for institutional investors evaluating net-lease portfolios.
Meta-capstone synthesizing the full Phase 1 + Phase 3 signal stack into a single integrated institutional read with a GO / GO-WITH-CAVEATS / WAIT / NO-GO verdict. Distinct from prior composites: Phase 1 Deal Strength evaluates deal math; Macro Alignment Score evaluates underwriting quality vs market; Timing Verdict evaluates cycle timing. This module integrates ALL of them plus live calibration, insurance renewal risk, and 30-year climate. Weights: Deal Math 25%, Macro Alignment 20%, Cycle Timing 15%, Live Calibration 15%, ESG 10%, Insurance Renewal 10%, 30-Year Climate 5%. Hard guards: Phase 1 PASS verdict → NO-GO regardless of macro (math failure overrides everything); Phase 3 timing PASS → WAIT (timing failure can be deferred). Surfaces top 3 supportive signals + top 3 concerns explicitly. Per-component contribution table shows each signal's score, weight, weighted contribution, and rationale. This is the headline call the IC committee asks: 'do we do this deal or not?', synthesized across deal math + market positioning + cycle timing + ESG + renewal risk + climate. Renders as the FIRST Phase 3 section in the IC memo with the largest visual treatment (verdict badge, integrated score, supportive vs concern panels). Phase 3 META badge to distinguish from regular Phase 3 modules.
Foreign LP appetite for the deal's market, a hidden but material dimension of exit liquidity and fundraising. Markets with deep cross-border capital have institutionally diverse buyer pools at exit; secondary markets depend entirely on domestic capital. Mid-2026 seeded estimates: NYC 38% cross-border share ($18.5B TTM, dominant Canadian + Asian + Middle Eastern), Miami 48% (highest share, Latin American capital flight dominant at 52% of foreign inflow), LA 32% (Asian capital-led, -5% YoY on California cost / regulation concerns), SF 30% (-18% YoY on office stress), Austin 22% (emerging on tech-driven foreign interest), Boston 28% (life-sciences-focused). Bands: gateway-deep (NYC, LA, Miami) / gateway-standard (SF, Boston) / major-emerging (Austin, Dallas) / secondary-limited (everything else; Canadian institutional dominant). Per-source breakdown by origin: Canadian, Asian, European, Middle Eastern, Latin American. For sponsors raising capital, surfaces which foreign LP archetypes are realistically targetable for the deal's market.
Compares the engine's hardcoded default values against live FRED data and surfaces the 'stale-ness' of each input. Distinct from Live Calibration Suggestions (which evaluates the analyst's current modeled values): this evaluates the engine's STARTING defaults, useful before editing a fresh deal to know whether the template values reflect today's market. Fields evaluated: expense growth vs live CPI (3.78%), rent growth vs 5Y inflation expectations (2.70%), interest rate vs live 10Y Treasury + 125 bps AAA CMBS spread (~5.71%), exit cap vs comp library midpoint, rent levels vs comp midpoint. Per-field rationale explains exactly what market source feeds each suggestion. Composite stale score 0-100 with bands: fresh (<15) / modestly-stale (15-35) / stale (35-60) / very-stale (60+). Cherry Street with mid-2026 defaults: stale band; expense growth 2.5% materially below live CPI 3.78%, rent growth 3% modestly above 5Y breakeven, interest rate 6.25% close to market-implied 5.71%, exit cap 6.5% close to Ithaca Mixed-Use comp midpoint 7.0%. Surfaces the gap an analyst typically misses when grabbing a default template.
Most CRE asset classes are domestic-demand-driven and insulated from tariff / trade policy shifts. Industrial / logistics is the major exception. Major US gateway markets are directly exposed to tariff regime changes: LA/Long Beach moves 40%+ of US containerized imports, Newark NJ serves East Coast trade, Houston Gulf Coast, Charleston Southeast. Sunbelt markets (Phoenix, Dallas, Houston) benefit from near-shoring (Mexico FDI) and reshoring tailwinds (TSMC Arizona, Intel Ohio, Hyundai Georgia, Samsung Texas). Three exposure dimensions: import gateway concentration (0-100), manufacturing reshoring exposure, near-shore beneficiary status. Composite weighted: gateway 45%, manufacturing 30%, near-shore 25%. Bands: low / moderate / elevated / high. Active mid-2026 policy drivers listed: sustained China tariff regime, USMCA mid-cycle review uncertainty, EU CBAM phase-in, Mexico near-shoring continuation ($40B+ FDI), Sunbelt reshoring tailwind. Auto-fires only on industrial deals; gracefully skipped for other asset classes.
Standard CRE underwriting uses flat expense growth (2.5% baseline). Energy costs have run materially higher in 2024-2026 due to AI training infrastructure pulling grid demand, renewables deployment + fossil baseload retirement, heat pump electrification mandates (NYC LL97, CA Title 24, WA CBPS), and grid-resilience pass-throughs. Per-asset-class utility OpEx share: Hotel 20% (24/7 ops), Mixed-Use 18%, Multifamily 15%, Office 12%, Retail 10%, Industrial 8% (tenant-controlled). Surfaces current energy inflation YoY by market (CA elevated at 7.2%, NY 6.4%, MA 5.8%, TX 6.0% from ERCOT grid stress + AI demand), spread over live CPI baseline, 5-year compounded projection, and the incremental expense growth implication for the deal. Active drivers shown explicitly. For utility-heavy asset classes (Hotel, Mixed-Use, MF), recommends recalibrating expense growth or modeling utilities separately. Cherry Street (Ithaca NY Mixed-Use, 18% utility share, ~5.25% energy inflation vs CPI 3.78%): implication 'material'; modeled flat 2.5% expense growth understates the trajectory by ~40 bps/year compounding to ~25% gap over 5 years.
CRE-CLO (Collateralized Loan Obligations) is the securitization market for floating-rate bridge / value-add / transitional CRE debt. Issuance volume is the institutional canary for bridge debt capacity: active issuance means bridge funds have take-out at maturity; collapsed issuance means bridge sponsors face forced sales. Seeded Q1 2026 issuance estimate ~$9B; TTM $32B vs $24B prior year (+33% YoY recovery from 2023 dislocation; peak was $45B in 2022). Bands: robust (>$15B quarterly, bridge accessible at tight spreads), standard ($8-15B), thin ($3-8B, take-out risk material), closed (<$3B, refi unavailable). Bridge refi viability flags: favorable / neutral / stressed / unavailable. Live SOFR + curve slope modulate the seeded volume signal; restrictive real policy rate (SOFR-CPI >2%) + inverted curve downgrades market band one tier because the bridge market is unlikely to clear at seeded levels in restrictive monetary conditions. Auto-detects deals with bridge characteristics (short term <=4yr, high LTV >=72%) and surfaces a specific take-out viability recommendation. Critical for sponsors of value-add / transitional capital structures.
Per-market view of which insurance carriers are actively writing CRE property insurance, which are non-renewing existing books, and which have fully withdrawn. Material because renewal risk is a hidden killer of long-hold deals in catastrophe-exposed markets. Post-2024 institutional insurance market has fragmented along climate lines: Florida + Gulf Coast saw private carriers exit (Citizens insurer-of-last-resort now 1.5M+ policies); California saw State Farm + Allstate pause new commercial 2023-2024 (CA FAIR Plan capacity tripled); Texas TWIA capacity tightening. Availability score 0-100 weighted: active-aggressive = 1.0, active-cautious = 0.5, non-renewing = 0.0, withdrawn = -0.5, multiplied by market share. Bands: deep / moderate / thin / constrained. Severity for the deal: minimal / moderate / elevated / critical. Diligence priority: standard / elevated / immediate. Per-carrier breakdown shows status badge + market share + notes for each major carrier in the market. Seeded library covers 7 major catastrophe-exposed CRE markets (Miami, Houston, LA, SF, NYC, Boston, Ithaca baseline). Critical for lenders increasingly requiring carrier rating + concentration diligence on new financing. Cherry Street (Ithaca NY): deep / standard band; competitive carrier market, no concentration concerns.
CRE deals are underwritten on 7-10 year holds but the asset sits in the market for 50-100 years. The climate exposure at year 30 is part of the exit-buyer's underwriting, which feeds back into today's terminal value. Projects the deal's climate risk forward 30 years under three IPCC AR6 / NIST / NOAA-calibrated scenarios: Baseline (current emissions trajectory; continued warming + insurance hardening), Moderate Transition (Paris-aligned 2°C; aggressive transition policy + tech deployment stabilizes insurance markets), High Warming (>3°C, transition failure; insurance market withdrawal in coastal / wildfire corridors, structural devaluation). Each scenario surfaces projected 2055 risk score, insurance market viability (viable / constrained / non-renewing / withdrawn), estimated asset value impact, and scenario-specific amplifiers (hurricane intensification, wildfire perimeter expansion, multi-meter SLR, etc.). Material for long-hold institutional capital + insurance-mandated capital (CalPERS / state pensions / SFDR Article 9 EU funds). High-risk markets (Miami, Houston, LA, Charleston) see -18% to -35% baseline-to-worst-case asset value range; secondary markets show -5% to -15%.
The Phase 1 engine bands cover six canonical CRE asset classes (Multifamily, Mixed-Use, Office, Retail, Hotel, Industrial). Three 2024-2026 institutional darlings sit outside that taxonomy: Data Center ($50B+ Q1 2026 transaction volume driven by AI training infrastructure), Build-to-Rent SFR (purpose-built rental communities consolidating to REITs + private capital), Life Sciences (specialized lab / R&D adjacent to research clusters). Detects via property type / deal name / address keyword signatures with confidence rating. Surfaces asset-class-specific bands the canonical engine misses: Data Center cap 4.75-6.5% with $9-18k/kW power capacity pricing; BTR SFR cap 5.1-6.8% with $250-450k/unit; Life Sciences cap 4.7-6.8% with $700-1500/SF lab-ready pricing. Plus specialized risk factors per class: power capacity / grid interconnect timing + hyperscaler concentration for data centers; per-unit maintenance + retention rates for BTR; stranded fit-out + biotech funding cycle for life sciences. Non-invasive overlay: existing engine modules continue to work unchanged on canonical asset classes. Cherry Street (Mixed-Use): detection returns 'not-applicable', section skipped. Production deals tagged with new asset classes get the bespoke institutional read.
Macro-aware version of the Phase 1 Sell vs Refi cash math. The Phase 1 module gives the cash trade-off ($ sale vs $ refi cash-out); this Phase 3 version layers live macro context onto the decision and produces an explicit recommendation. Synthesizes five signal categories: cash math (sale ratio vs refi capacity), macro regime (late-cycle favors sell; early-recovery / expansion favors refi-and-hold), lender appetite (accommodative favors refi; restrictive favors sell), forward rate environment (rising favors sell now; falling favors refi-and-hold), and refi feasibility gate (ACR >= 1.10x required at maturity, else sell forced). Scored -100 (strong sell) to +100 (strong refi-and-hold). Driver table shows each signal with weight + favors-sell-or-refi + rationale so the IC sees exactly which signals pulled the call. Recommendations: sell-now / lean-sell / indifferent / lean-refi / refi-and-hold. The maturity decision sponsors usually fall back to gut on; now anchored to live macro + actual cash math.