Underwrite covers insurance, lease recovery, and property tax defense. This module adds the utility-cost layer: whether electric, gas, water, sewer, and common-area utility growth is controllable, tenant-recoverable, or sponsor-absorbed NOI drag. Utility costs can move faster than base operating growth, especially for older buildings, mixed-use assets, data centers, hotels, medical office, lab, and high-service retail. The output is a deterministic read on which share of the volatility the sponsor actually carries. Not a utility procurement recommendation, lease legal opinion, energy audit, or tenant reimbursement determination. Renders for any deal with purchase price, hold period, Y1 NOI, and positive Y1 operating expense. Reimbursement structure classification by cue plus property-type default with explicit tenant-direct-metering override: tenant-direct-metered for submeter, sub-meter, tenant-metered, direct-metered cues; triple-net-recoveries when upstream LeaseRecoveryClauseReimbursementLeakageIndex.recoveryStructure is triple-net, or for industrial and retail defaults; modified-gross for upstream modified-gross or RUBS multifamily cues; base-year-stop for office default or upstream base-year-stop; gross-or-capped for residential or hotel default or upstream gross-or-capped; mixed-recovery for mixed-use; not-assessable otherwise. Utility intensity tier classification: industrial low baseline; multifamily, mixed-use, office, and retail moderate; hotel high; cue escalation pushes intensity up one tier for data center, hyperscale, colocation, lab, life science, biotech, medical office, restaurant, food hall, or cold storage cues; dataCenterPowerCapacityTracker.powerCostRisk high forces high tier, elevated forces at least elevated tier. Utility share of opex pulled from energyCostOverlay.utilityShareOfOpEx when available (multifamily 15%, mixed-use 18%, office 12%, retail 10%, hotel 20%, industrial 8% baseline). Recoverable percentage defers to upstream LeaseRecoveryClauseReimbursementLeakageIndex.estimatedRecoverableOpexPct when applicable, then to InsuranceExpenseRecoveryPassThroughRiskResult.estimatedRecoverablePct as proxy, then to structure-based defaults (tenant-direct-metered 92%, triple-net-recoveries 78%, modified-gross 52%, base-year-stop 38%, gross-or-capped 5-12% by asset, mixed-recovery 50%). Utility exposure dollars sized as max of (Y1 utilities times hold years, Y1 utilities times cumulative energy inflation factor where the factor is energy overlay YoY when applicable else 3.5% baseline times hold). Sponsor absorbed dollars equals total exposure times (1 minus recoverable pct). NOI drag bps equals annualized sponsor-absorbed growth divided by Y1 NOI in bps. Six weighted drivers: lease recovery protection 30% (recoverable pct banded: 80%-plus 84, 60% 64, 40% 48, 20% 32, under 20% 22), utility intensity by property type 20% (intensity tier: low 78, moderate 60, elevated 40, high 24; utility share above 20% of opex minus 6, above 15% minus 3), energy or climate volatility signal 15% (energyCostOverlay.currentEnergyInflation at 8%-plus minus 16, 5%-plus minus 8; climateTransitionRisk high or elevated minus 6; dataCenter powerCostRisk high minus 8), operating margin cushion 15% (margin expanding plus 6, compressing minus 14; cashConversion strong plus 4, tight minus 6, thin minus 12), cash conversion resilience 10% (band: strong 80, typical 70, tight 50, thin 32; operating leverage averageOLC above 2.0x minus 6), tenant concentration or dispute risk 10% (riskTier: low 78, moderate 58, high 32). Bands: utility-protected (composite 78-plus and recoverable 70%-plus), reimbursement-watch (63-77 or recoverable 45-69%), margin-sensitive (48-62 or recoverable 25-44%), sponsor-absorbed-utility-risk (under 48 or recoverable under 25% or high volatility tier with thin margin cushion), not-assessable. Memo surface: verdict banner with band, score, recoverable pct, sponsor absorbed dollars; four-stat headline (utility exposure dollars, recoverable share in gold, NOI drag bps, volatility tier); two-cell strip (reimbursement structure, operating margin cushion); four-cell utility category strip (electric, gas, water-sewer, cam-utilities) with intensity tier per category and annualized dollar estimate; six-driver weighted score table with status, contribution, and interpretation; diligence actions tied to two-year utility billing reconciliation (always), utility recovery clause confirmation (always), submeter integrity on tenant-direct-metered structures, energy audit and benchmarking on elevated or high intensity tier, utility tariff schedule pull on 5%-plus energy inflation, jurisdiction emissions mandate alignment on elevated or high climate transition risk, data center PPA review when power cost risk is non-low, sponsor-absorbed NOI drag modeling when recoverable pct under 40%; 2-4 deal implications by band including sponsor-absorbed dollar share, NOI drag bps, and the explicit framing that on sponsor-absorbed-utility-risk deals the sponsor either re-cuts price by the cumulative absorbed share or commits to operational tuning capex inside hold. Module degrades gracefully when energyCostOverlay is absent (uses 3.5% baseline inflation), climate transition is absent (no volatility haircut), data center module is absent (no power-cost escalation), operating margin or cash conversion is absent (cushion driver neutral), tenant concentration has no rent roll (dispute driver neutral). EnergyCostOverlay is passed as undefined in MemoView since it requires marketSnapshot (async loaded); module's 3.5% baseline inflation fallback applies. No type-name corrections required this cycle. Utility cost volatility and tenant reimbursement exposure is a deterministic underwriting overlay. It is not a utility procurement recommendation, lease legal opinion, energy audit, or tenant reimbursement determination.
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Phase 3 continues: five recovery, tax, and utility overlays land today. Insurance Program Placement and Escrow Strategy, Insurance Expense Recovery and NOI Pass-Through Risk, Lease Recovery Clause and Expense Reimbursement Leakage Index, Property Tax Appeal Probability and Reassessment Defense Index, and Utility Cost Volatility and Tenant Reimbursement Exposure Index join the engine. The memo now reads lease-level recovery across all opex categories, reassessment appeal readiness, the utility-specific volatility tier with electric, gas, water-sewer, and CAM exposure by category, and the insurance placement and escrow strategy that ties premium load, carrier posture, coverage architecture, and lender escrow into a single placement route. 113 Phase 3 modules cumulative.
Underwrite already flags property tax reassessment risk through PropertyTaxReassessmentRisk. This module answers the next IC question: given that step, is there a credible appeal or defense path, and how much of the shock is realistically controllable through evidence, jurisdiction practice, lease recovery, and reserves. Not legal advice and not an appeal recommendation. It surfaces whether the record is strong enough to support an appeal strategy, whether the reserve is sized for a failed appeal, and what evidence the analyst should gather before IC. Renders when reassessment risk is meaningful (Y2 uplift at 3%-plus of Y1 tax) and the upstream reassessment module ran; skips when reassessment is essentially zero. Evidence tier classification: strong-income-approach (operating margin under 45% or Y1 vacancy above 15%), comps-supported (acquisition basis below the institutional band), capex-or-vacancy-supported (value-add, repositioning, renovation, or active lease-up posture from leaseUpYears or notes), thin-record (stabilized core asset with above-band or in-band basis and no capex narrative), not-assessable (insufficient context). Appealable fraction by evidence tier: strong-income-approach 65%, comps-supported 50%, capex-or-vacancy-supported 35%, thin-record 15%, not-assessable 20%. Jurisdiction appeal practice classifies probability of partial relief from address text and StateTaxBurden.profile.stateAbbr: Texas 55% (aggressive ARB practice with mass-appeal vendors), Illinois 48% (Cook County BOR), New Jersey 45% (County Boards of Taxation and Tax Court), New York City 40% (BAR petitions through Tax Commission, three-year cycles), New York State 38% (SCAR or Article 7), Massachusetts 38% (Appellate Tax Board), Florida 32% (Value Adjustment Board), California 30% (Proposition 13 caps annual increases; commercial change-of-ownership reassessment is appealable via Assessment Appeals Board but probability is below the national average), default 36% for other covered states or 30% for unknown. Probability adjustment by evidence tier: strong-income-approach plus 12%, comps-supported plus 6%, capex-or-vacancy plus 2%, thin-record minus 10%; final probability clamped to 85%. Six weighted drivers: reassessment severity 25% (PropertyTaxReassessmentRisk.riskBand: low 78, moderate 52, high 30; uplift percent of Y1 tax surfaced in interpretation), appeal evidence strength 25% (evidence tier score: strong-income 84, comps 70, capex-vacancy 56, thin 28, not-assessable 50), jurisdiction appeal practice 20% (probability of relief banded: 50%-plus 80, 40-50% 66, 32-40% 50, 24-32% 38, under 24% 26), reserve adequacy against tax shock 15% (coverage band: 1.5x-plus 78, 1.0x 62, 0.5x 38, under 0.5x 22; reserveAdequacy under-reserved floors at 26, thin at 48), lease recovery for tax expense 10% (recoverable pct from LeaseRecoveryClauseReimbursementLeakageIndex.estimatedRecoverableOpexPct or InsuranceExpenseRecoveryPassThroughRiskResult.estimatedRecoverablePct as proxy: 75%-plus 78, 50% 60, 25% 42, under 25% 24), operating margin and cash conversion cushion 5% (margin trend expanding plus 6, compressing minus 12; cashConversion thin minus 12, tight minus 6, strong plus 4). Estimated tax shock equals reassessment Y2 uplift times hold period. Appealable shock amount equals total shock times evidence-tier appealable fraction. Probability of relief equals jurisdiction baseline plus evidence-tier adjustment, clamped to 85%. Expected relief dollars equals appealable shock times probability of relief. Net uncovered tax exposure equals total shock minus lease-recovered portion (totalShock times recoverable pct) minus expected relief dollars. Bands: appeal-ready (composite 78-plus with strong-income-approach or comps-supported evidence and probability 40%-plus), defensible-with-evidence (63-77 or strong-comp evidence in low-reassessment-risk context), reserve-dependent (48-62 with adequate reserve coverage or thin-record evidence with coverage 0.5x-plus), weak-appeal-posture (under 48 or thin-record evidence with coverage under 0.5x), not-assessable. Memo surface: verdict banner with band, score, evidence tier, jurisdiction probability; four-stat headline (estimated tax shock, appealable amount, expected relief highlighted in gold, net uncovered exposure); three-cell strip (probability of relief, reserve coverage, reassessment risk band); six-driver weighted score table with status, contribution, and interpretation; evidence requests tied to assessor working file pull (always), Y1 income approach assembly when margin or vacancy supports it, three sale comps assembly (always), capex and stabilization documentation on value-add posture, transaction document submission on below-band basis, market-value framing acknowledgment on above-band basis; diligence actions tied to property tax counsel or mass-appeal vendor engagement keyed to jurisdiction (always), reassessment trigger and filing window confirmation (always), tax-reserve sizing when coverage under 1.0x, tax-recovery confirmation when lease recovery is thin, price-recut framing when reassessment is high and evidence is thin; 2-4 deal implications by band including expected relief dollars, net uncovered exposure, and the explicit framing that on weak-appeal-posture deals the sponsor either re-cuts price, secures seller tax indemnity, or accepts the post-reassessment tax line as the underwriting assumption. Module degrades gracefully when stateTaxBurden has no profile coverage (jurisdiction defaults to unknown 30%), acquisitionBasis is absent (evidence tier inference loses the below-band signal), reserveAdequacy is absent (reserve defense driver neutral 45-55), leaseRecoveryLeakage and insuranceRecovery are absent (lease recovery driver neutral 55). No type-name corrections required this cycle. Property tax appeal probability and reassessment defense index is a deterministic underwriting overlay. It is not legal advice, a property tax counsel opinion, an appeal recommendation, a jurisdiction-specific procedure, or a relief guarantee.
The Insurance Expense Recovery module exposed a broader operating-diligence gap: whether taxes, insurance, CAM, utilities, management, repairs, and other operating-expense growth are actually recoverable from tenants under the lease language. A pro forma can show stable NOI while silently assuming perfect expense recovery. This module classifies the lease recovery structure, estimates the recoverable share of operating-expense growth across all categories, surfaces cap and base-year exposure, flags tenant-dispute risk, and translates the gap into leakage dollars and an opex drag in bps of Y1 NOI. Not a lease abstract, legal opinion, tenant billing determination, or reimbursement guarantee. Renders for any deal with purchase price, hold period, Y1 NOI, and either commercial property type or explicit recovery cues. Residential and hotel asset classes return not-applicable unless commercial-tenant or recovery cues are present. Recovery structure classification by cue plus property-type default: triple-net for explicit NNN, net lease, absolute net, bondable, ground lease, reimbursable, or CAM recovery cues, or industrial and retail defaults; base-year-stop for explicit base-year or expense-stop cues, or office default; modified-gross for explicit modified-gross or industrial-gross cues; gross-or-capped for explicit gross-lease, full-service, fully-gross, or capped-opex cues; mixed-recovery for Mixed-Use property type; not-assessable when no property type or recovery cue is available. Base recoverable opex percent by structure plus property type: industrial NNN 92%, retail NNN grocery-anchored 85%, retail NNN small-shop or service or restaurant 58-62%, retail NNN default 75%, office NNN 80%, office base-year 38%, office modified-gross 48%, office gross 16%, industrial modified-gross 60%, modified-gross default 52%, mixed-use 50%, gross default 12%, residential gross 5%. Adjustments: cap cue (CAP cues include capped opex, expense cap, CAM cap, controllable cap) minus 10%; one exclusion cue minus 8%, two-plus exclusion cues minus 15% (EXCLUSION cues include excluded insurance, excluded tax, landlord-paid utilities, management fee exclusion); tenant concentration risk tier high minus 12%, moderate minus 5%. Cap or stop exposure classified low / moderate / elevated / high based on cap cue presence, exclusion cue count, and tenant concentration. Tenant dispute risk classified: retail with small-shop or restaurant or local-tenant cues elevated; retail default moderate; office moderate; industrial low; mixed-use moderate; high concentration escalates one tier. Six weighted drivers: recovery structure clarity 30% (structure band: triple-net 84, mixed-recovery 60, modified-gross 54, base-year-stop 44, gross-or-capped 24; recoverable pct dampens via floor and ceiling rules), expense categories recoverable 20% (insurance excluded minus 14, tax excluded minus 14, landlord-paid utilities minus 10, management fee exclusion minus 6, CAM recovery cue plus 6; cross-references upstream insuranceExpenseRecoveryPassThroughRisk band: sponsor-absorbed minus 6, recovery-protected plus 4), cap stop base-year and exclusion exposure 15% (low 80, moderate 60, elevated 38, high 22; base-year-stop structure minus 6 additional), tenant concentration and dispute risk 15% (riskTier: low 78, moderate 56, high 30, n/a 60), operating margin and cash conversion cushion 10% (margin expanding plus 6, compressing minus 14; cashConversion thin minus 14, tight minus 8, strong plus 4; operating leverage averageOLC above 2.0x minus 6, above 1.5x minus 3), opex inflation and tax reassessment exposure 10% (PropertyTaxReassessmentRisk.riskBand: high minus 14, moderate minus 6, low neutral; cumulative opex growth from noiDecomp.deltaTotalOpEx surfaced for context). Estimated leakage dollars equals cumulative opex growth over hold (sum of negative deltaTotalOpEx from noiDecomp) times leakage pct, plus tax reassessment Y2 uplift times hold times leakage pct when applicable. Opex drag bps equals annualized leakage (leakage divided by hold) divided by Y1 NOI in bps. Bands: recovery-strong (composite 78-plus and recoverable 75%-plus), recovery-watch (63-77 or recoverable 55-74%), leakage-exposed (48-62 or recoverable 30-54%), sponsor-absorbed-opex-risk (under 48 or recoverable under 30% or high cap exposure with compressing margin), not-assessable. Memo surface: verdict banner with band, score, recovery structure, recoverable opex percentage; four-stat headline (leakage share, leakage dollars, opex drag bps, cap or stop exposure); four-cell strip (tenant dispute risk plus three-cell recovery waterfall: total opex growth, recoverable share highlighted in gold, leakage share); six-driver weighted score table with status, contribution, and interpretation; lease diligence actions tied to NNN, CAM, tax, insurance, utility, and management-fee clause abstraction (always), caps and stops and base-year and exclusion confirmation (always), anchor or top-tenant side letters when concentration is moderate or high, historical reimbursement billings reconciliation (always), unrecovered opex modeling as NOI drag at the bps level when drag is non-zero, tax reassessment recovery confirmation when reassessment riskBand is moderate or high, historical CAM reconciliation pull when cap exposure is elevated or high; 2-4 deal implications by band including recoverable percentage, cumulative leakage dollars, and the explicit framing that on sponsor-absorbed-opex-risk deals lease renegotiation is the only path out. Module degrades gracefully when tenantConcentration has no rent roll (no concentration adjustment), operatingMarginTrend or cashConversion or operatingLeverage are absent (cushion driver neutral), noiDecomp is absent (no opex growth context, leakage dollars sized from reassessment only), and propertyTaxReassessmentRisk is absent (no Y2 uplift component, inflation driver neutral). Upstream type-name corrections: PropertyTaxReassessmentRisk surfaces the band as `riskBand` not `band`, and the band tier values are low / moderate / high (no severe or elevated tiers). All other upstream types matched the spec: OperatingLeverageResult, CashConversionResult, OperatingMarginTrend, NoiDecompYear, TenantConcentrationResult, NetEffectiveRentResult, InsuranceExpenseRecoveryPassThroughRiskResult. Lease recovery clause and reimbursement leakage index is a deterministic underwriting overlay. It is not a lease abstract, legal opinion, tenant billing determination, or reimbursement guarantee.
The insurance stack now models premium load (insuranceLoad), climate-adjusted drift (climateInsuranceForecast), carrier availability (insuranceCarrierAvailabilityRenewalRisk), deductible shock and coverage exclusions (insuranceDeductibleShockCoverageExclusion), placement route and escrow posture (insuranceProgramPlacementEscrowStrategy). This module adds the operating-income layer: when insurance costs rise, how much pressure is recoverable from tenants under the actual lease structure, and how much remains as NOI drag the sponsor absorbs. Not a lease abstract, legal opinion, insurance quote, or tenant reimbursement determination; inferred recoveries should be confirmed against actual lease documents before any pricing or financing decision. Renders for any deal with purchase price, hold period, Y1 NOI, and at least one source of insurance, climate, peril, lease, or upstream insurance-module context. For residential and hotel asset classes without explicit recovery cues, renders only when insurance shock is material enough to create NOI drag (material or catastrophic deductible, elevated or high carrier renewal shock, or material or severe climate forecast band). Recovery structure classification by cue plus property type default: triple-net for industrial and retail defaults or explicit NNN cues (NNN, triple net, net lease, absolute net, bondable, ground lease); modified-gross for office default or explicit modified-gross or base-year or expense-stop cues; gross-or-capped for explicit gross-lease or full-service or capped-opex cues; mixed-recovery for Mixed-Use property type; residential and hotel default to gross-or-capped unless RUBS or utility-billback cues lift them to modified-gross. Recoverable percentage by structure plus property type: industrial NNN 95%, industrial modified-gross 62%, retail NNN with grocery anchor 88%, retail NNN with small-shop or service or restaurant cues 60-65%, retail NNN default 78%, office NNN 85%, office modified-gross 42%, office gross 18%, residential RUBS 22%, residential gross 0%, mixed-use 52%, NNN baseline 80%. Concentration haircuts: high tenant concentration minus 15% practical recovery, moderate minus 7%; max annual rollover above 40% overlapping elevated or high carrier renewal shock minus 8% (rollover during shock window). Year-one insurance load bps equals Y1 insurance dollars divided by Y1 NOI times 10,000. Renewal shock recovery gap calculated three ways with fallback: when climate forecast has geo coverage, use climateInsuranceForecast.premiumGapDollars times sponsor-absorbed share; when only carrier module is applicable, use carrier-renewal-shock-multiple (high 0.5x, elevated 0.3x, moderate 0.15x, low 0.05x) times Y1 premium times hold times sponsor-absorbed share; final fallback uses cumulative YoY insurance growth from noiDecomp.deltaInsurance times sponsor-absorbed share. Cash-flow drag dollars equals renewal shock recovery gap plus the full deductible event when material or catastrophic (deductible events are conventionally not recoverable from tenants under standard lease language). NOI drag bps equals the annualized recovery gap (gap divided by hold) divided by Y1 NOI in bps. Tenant sensitivity classification: low for triple-net with low or moderate concentration, moderate for triple-net with high concentration, elevated for modified-gross or mixed-recovery, high for gross-or-capped or modified-gross with high concentration. Six weighted drivers: lease recovery structure and pass-through clarity 30% (structure band: triple-net 84, mixed-recovery 60, modified-gross 50, gross-or-capped 24; recoverable pct dampens or amplifies via floor and ceiling rules), tenant concentration and bargaining power 15% (riskTier: low 78, moderate 56, high 30, n/a 60), insurance load and renewal shock 20% (insuranceLoad above-band minus 10, below-band plus 6, in-band neutral; carrier renewal high minus 14 elevated minus 8 moderate minus 3; climate band severe minus 10, material minus 5), vacancy rollover and renewal timing 15% (maxAnnualRolloverPct above 40% minus 18, above 25% minus 8; renewal shock overlap with rollover above 25% minus 8 additional), operating margin and cash conversion cushion 15% (margin trend expanding plus 6, compressing minus 14; cashConversion band thin minus 14, tight minus 8, strong plus 4), deductible and placement complexity 5% (catastrophic-deductible minus 14, material-deductible minus 8; structural-exclusions minus 6; lender-controlled-escrow minus 6, deductible-event-escrow minus 3). Bands: recovery-protected (composite 78-plus and recoverable 75%-plus), partial-pass-through (63-77 or recoverable 50-74%), noi-drag-watch (48-62 or recoverable 25-49%), sponsor-absorbed-risk (under 48 or recoverable under 25% or elevated/high renewal shock with compressing margin), not-assessable. Memo surface: verdict banner with band, score, recovery structure, recoverable percentage, sensitivity tier; four-stat headline (sponsor absorbed percentage, NOI drag bps, cash-flow drag dollars, renewal shock recovery gap); three-cell recovery waterfall strip (gross insurance shock, recovered from tenants percentage, sponsor absorbed percentage); six-driver weighted score table with status, contribution, and interpretation; lease review actions tied to recovery-clause review (always), insurance recovery caps and base-year amounts (always), anchor-tenant caps and side letters when concentration is moderate or high, NOI drag modeling at the bps level when drag is non-zero, deductible event recovery scope on material or catastrophic deductibles, lease renewal calendar alignment on modified-gross or gross-or-capped structures; 2-4 deal implications by band including recoverable percentage, cash-flow drag dollars, and the explicit framing that on sponsor-absorbed-risk deals insurance growth becomes price not recovery. Module degrades gracefully when tenantConcentration has no rent roll (no concentration haircut, neutral driver), climate forecast has no geo coverage (falls back to carrier shock multiple, then noiDecomp), operatingMarginTrend or cashConversion are absent (cushion driver neutral), and deductible or placement modules are absent (complexity driver neutral). Type-name corrections vs spec: rolloverDowntime.ts does not exist (rollover signal lives on TenantConcentrationResult.maxAnnualRolloverPct), operatingCashConversion.ts actual filename is cashConversion.ts with type CashConversionResult, noiDecomposition.ts actual filename is noiDecomp.ts with per-year type NoiDecompYear[] (not aggregate), and rentRoll.ts does not exist (rent roll is inputs.revenue.tenants[]). Insurance expense recovery and NOI pass-through risk is a deterministic lease-recovery overlay. It is not a lease abstract, legal opinion, insurance quote, or tenant reimbursement determination.
The memo now models insurance cost (insuranceLoad, climateInsuranceForecast), carrier availability (insuranceCarrierAvailabilityRenewalRisk), and coverage architecture (insuranceDeductibleShockCoverageExclusion). This synthesis module answers the missing IC question: what placement path and escrow posture should the sponsor pursue before hard money. Insurance risk is now a capital-markets execution issue, not an expense line. The output is a deterministic recommendation on admitted-versus-surplus placement, layered-tower needs, lender escrow posture, and broker engagement timing; it does not produce quotes, replace a broker, or substitute for legal or coverage advice. Renders for any deal with purchase price, hold period, Y1 NOI, and at least one source of insurance, climate, peril, or upstream insurance-module context. Placement route classification (priority order): lender-exception-required when structural exclusions are present, lender covenant reads negative or elevated, brownfield lenderEscrowRisk is high, carrier lenderExceptionRisk is high, or reserve-coverage-against-shock is below 0.70x; surplus-lines-backup when carrier band is constrained-carrier-market or coverage-friction-risk; layered-market when dominant peril is high (wind, flood, or wildfire) or material exclusions are present; admitted-with-conditions when carrier band is monitored-renewal, deductible band is deductible-watch, exclusions are narrow, or renewal shock is elevated or high; admitted-standard otherwise. Escrow posture classification: lender-controlled-escrow when route is lender-exception-required; deductible-event-escrow when deductible band is material or catastrophic or brownfield lenderEscrowRisk is elevated; monitored-renewal-escrow when carrier band is constrained or coverage-friction-risk, renewal shock is elevated or high, or route is admitted-with-conditions or layered-market; no-extra-escrow otherwise. Recommended escrow dollars sized as the maximum of three components: modeled single-event deductible from insuranceDeductibleShockCoverageExclusion.estimatedDeductibleShockDollars, renewal shock reserve sized as a carrier-band-driven multiple of Y1 insurance premium (high 0.5x, elevated 0.35x, moderate 0.2x, low 0.1x, unknown 0.15x), and lender environmental escrow proxy from brownfieldRemediationReserveAdequacy.fundingGap (full gap when escrow risk is high, half when elevated, zero otherwise). Escrow months: monitored-renewal 6, deductible-event 12, lender-controlled 24, no-extra 0. Broker engagement timing classification: immediate-market-check when route is lender-exception-required or surplus-lines-backup; pre-hard-money when route is layered-market or carrier band is constrained-carrier-market or deductible band is insurance-structure-risk; pre-loi when composite score is below 70 or route is admitted-with-conditions; standard-renewal otherwise. Six weighted drivers: carrier availability and renewal market 25% (carrier band: standard-market 82, monitored-renewal 64, constrained-carrier-market 40, coverage-friction-risk 22; renewal shock high minus 8 elevated minus 4; lender exception high minus 6 elevated minus 3), deductible shock and exclusion sensitivity 25% (deductible band: coverage-resilient 82, deductible-watch 64, exclusion-sensitive 40, insurance-structure-risk 22; structural-exclusions minus 8, material-exclusions minus 4; catastrophic-deductible minus 8, material-deductible minus 4), climate and geographic peril severity 20% (geoRiskOverlay.climateRiskBand: low 82, moderate 64, elevated 38, high 22; climate forecast severe minus 6, material minus 3; falls back to climate forecast band when geo overlay not covered), reserve and escrow capacity 15% (reserveAdequacy status: adequate 75, thin 46, under-reserved 24; reserve coverage against shock under 0.70x floors at 22, under 1.0x at 40, under 1.25x at 56; brownfield lender escrow risk high floors at 30, elevated at 50), debt sizing and lender covenant pressure 10% (DSCR-bound minus 14, debt-yield-bound minus 6, LTV-bound neutral; refi maxShiftBps under 100 minus 10, 100-200 minus 4; deductible-shock lender covenant negative minus 12, elevated minus 6), current premium load versus benchmark 5% (below-band 78, in-band 64, above-band 38). Bands: standard-market-program (composite 78-plus, route admitted-standard, no elevated dimension), monitored-renewal-program (63-77 or composite 78-plus with one elevated dimension such as elevated renewal shock or elevated lender exception or elevated lender covenant), structured-placement-needed (48-62 or composite 48-plus with exclusion-sensitive band or material or catastrophic deductible), lender-exception-workout (under 48, route lender-exception-required, structural exclusions, or insurance-structure-risk band), not-assessable. Memo surface: verdict banner with band, score, placement route, escrow posture; four-stat headline (recommended escrow dollars, escrow months, broker timing, lender posture); five-cell placement route strip (admitted-standard, admitted-with-conditions, layered-market, surplus-lines-backup, lender-exception-required) with the active route highlighted in gold; six-driver weighted score table with contribution and interpretation; coverage structure notes tied to dominant peril (wind tower percentage-of-TIV in 3-5% range for coastal markets, flood NFIP plus private excess attachment, wildfire defensible-space and Class A roof requirements, pollution legal liability endorsement scope); placement actions tied to route severity (three-carrier admitted quote on standard, pre-LOI market check on conditions, layered-tower scoping pre-hard-money on layered, surplus-lines parallel placement on backup, lender-exception workout on lender-exception); lender conversation points tied to lender insurance covenant baseline (always), carrier-market exception disclosure on elevated or high carrier risk, deductible escrow conversation on material or catastrophic deductibles, structural exclusions waiver or endorsement conversation, joint insurance-and-environmental escrow conversation on elevated or high brownfield lender escrow risk; 2-4 deal implications by band including escrow dollar sizing and the explicit framing that insurance becomes a structural input on lender-exception-workout deals. Module degrades gracefully when any individual upstream module is absent; drivers default to neutral 55-60 scores with explicit fallback interpretation. Type-name verification: insuranceLoad surfaces premium as y1InsuranceDollars (not annualPremium); annual premium proxy reads from that field. No other type-name corrections vs spec; all eleven upstream types matched exactly. Insurance program placement and escrow strategy is a deterministic underwriting overlay. It is not an insurance quote, broker recommendation, lender approval, legal opinion, or coverage advice.
Phase 3 continues: Insurance Carrier Availability and Renewal Risk Index and Insurance Deductible Shock and Coverage Exclusion Sensitivity land. Memo now classifies whether a deal can actually secure and renew coverage on institutional terms, plus a deterministic deductible-shock and coverage-exclusion screen that turns peril severity into single-event deductible dollars, NOI drag bps, reserve coverage ratio, lender covenant read, and a five-peril coverage-risk strip (wind, flood, wildfire, liability, environmental) on every memo where insurance or peril context is available. 108 Phase 3 modules cumulative.
Premium load tells the IC what insurance costs today. Climate-adjusted forecast tells the IC where premium drifts over hold. Carrier availability tells the IC whether coverage can be secured. This module answers the missing IC question: if deductibles reset higher, named perils are excluded, or lender-required coverage narrows, does the deal still carry enough NOI and reserve capacity. It is not an insurance quote, legal opinion, or coverage recommendation; it translates coverage terms into NOI drag, reserve need, lender compliance risk, and IC diligence actions. Renders for any deal with purchase price, hold period, Y1 NOI, and at least one source of insurance or peril context (insuranceLoad, climateInsuranceForecast, or geoRiskOverlay with covered scores). Coverage risk strip classifies five perils independently with low / moderate / elevated / high tiers: wind from geoRiskOverlay.scores.hurricane and tornado (tornado escalates wind if higher), flood from geoRiskOverlay.scores.flood, wildfire from geoRiskOverlay.scores.wildfire, liability defaulting to low without explicit cues, environmental from environmentalSiteConditionRiskIndex.band (remediation-sensitive high, environmental-watch elevated, manageable-diligence moderate, clean-site-likely low). Single-event deductible shock dollars estimated from the dominant peril tier: high-tier wind 5% of total insured value (TIV approximated at 70% of purchase price), elevated 3%, moderate 1.5%; high-tier wildfire max of $500K or 2% TIV, elevated max of $250K or 1% TIV; high-tier flood max of $500K or 2% TIV, elevated max of $250K or 1% TIV; baseline all-other-perils $50K floor; above-band insuranceLoad amplifies the modeled event 1.1x. Deductible band classification by absolute size and percent of price: catastrophic-deductible at 3% of price or $1M-plus; material-deductible at 1.5% or $500K-plus; elevated-deductible at 0.5% or $150K-plus; standard-deductible otherwise. NOI drag bps equals deductible event divided by Y1 NOI times 10,000. Coverage exclusion band from strip arithmetic (tier weights low 0 / moderate 1 / elevated 2 / high 3 across the five perils): 0-1 broad-coverage, 2-4 narrow-exclusions, 5-8 material-exclusions, 9-plus structural-exclusions. High flood or wildfire alone escalate narrow-exclusions to material-exclusions because those perils typically become named exclusions rather than priced through. Six weighted drivers: deductible shock affordability 25% (noiDragBps banded: under 200 84, 200-500 64, 500-1000 44, 1000-2500 26, 2500-plus 14, with band-specific interpretation), coverage exclusion exposure 20% (broad-coverage 84, narrow-exclusions 64, material-exclusions 40, structural-exclusions 22), climate peril severity 20% (geoRiskOverlay.climateRiskBand: low 82, moderate 64, elevated 38, high 22; climateInsuranceForecast severe minus 8, material minus 4, no-uplift plus 2), reserve capacity 15% (reserveCoverageRatio = reservesAvgOverHold times hold divided by deductible event; 2.0x-plus 82, 1.25x 64, 0.75x 42, under 0.75x 22; reserveAdequacy under-reserved status floors at 30, thin status floors at 50), lender covenant and refi sensitivity 10% (DSCR-bound minus 12 with covenant-test note, debt-yield-bound minus 6, LTV-bound neutral; refi maxShiftBps under 100 minus 12, 100-200 minus 6; carrier lender exception high minus 10, elevated minus 5; covenant read classified supportive / neutral / watch / elevated / negative / not-assessable), carrier availability and renewal posture 10% (insuranceCarrierAvailabilityRenewalRisk.band: standard-market 80, monitored-renewal 64, constrained-carrier-market 42, coverage-friction-risk 22; renewal shock high minus 6, elevated minus 3). Bands: coverage-resilient (composite score 78-plus, no elevated or negative lender covenant read), deductible-watch (63-77 or composite 78-plus with elevated or negative covenant), exclusion-sensitive (48-62 or composite 48-plus with catastrophic deductible or structural exclusions), insurance-structure-risk (under 48 or catastrophic deductible plus structural exclusions), not-assessable. Hard floors prevent coverage-resilient when catastrophic deductibles or structural exclusions are present regardless of composite score. Memo surface: verdict banner with band, score, deductible shock dollars, NOI drag bps, reserve coverage ratio; four-stat headline (deductible band, exclusion band, NOI drag bps, lender covenant read); five-cell coverage risk strip by peril (wind, flood, wildfire, liability, environmental); six-driver weighted score table with status, contribution, and interpretation; diligence actions tied to binder and exclusions schedule request (always), deductible escrow modeling on material or catastrophic deductibles with explicit working-estimate dollars, lender insurance covenant confirmation (always), reserve sizing tested against deductible event when coverage under 1.25x, renewal-conditions review in constrained or coverage-friction carrier markets, layered or surplus-lines placement on high-tier flood or wildfire, pollution legal liability scope on elevated or high environmental tier; 2-4 deal implications by band including the explicit framing that coverage architecture is the underwriting story on insurance-structure-risk deals and that DSCR-bound sizings can breach on a single deductible event. Module degrades gracefully when any individual upstream module is absent; drivers default to neutral scores with explicit fallback interpretation. Type-name corrections vs spec: spec referenced climateAdjustedInsuranceForecastResult and geographicRiskOverlay.ts; live names are ClimateInsuranceForecast (from climateInsuranceForecast.ts) and GeoRiskOverlayResult (from geoRiskOverlay.ts). Insurance deductible shock and coverage exclusion sensitivity is a deterministic underwriting overlay. It is not an insurance quote, legal opinion, or coverage recommendation.
Insurance cost is modeled (insuranceLoad), climate-adjusted insurance is modeled (climateInsuranceForecast), environmental site risk is modeled (environmentalSiteConditionRiskIndex), and brownfield reserve adequacy is modeled (brownfieldRemediationReserveAdequacy). The missing IC question is whether the deal can actually secure and renew coverage on institutional terms. A deal can show acceptable premium load and still face carrier withdrawal, exclusions, deductible resets, lender insurance exceptions, or renewal shock. This module converts climate, insurance, geography, environmental, and operating-margin signals into a deterministic carrier availability and renewal-risk read. Renders for any deal with purchase price, hold period, and at least one source of carrier-market context (insurance load, climate insurance, geo risk overlay, state context, or property type). State carrier-market classification from address text: Florida and Louisiana baseline 24 (constrained-coastal, materially constrained carrier market with named-storm deductibles and state insurer of last resort fallback), California 28 (wildfire-constrained, Proposition 103 rate-filing friction and FAIR Plan fallback exposure), Texas coastal 44 (managed-coastal, TWIA wind tower fallback), Carolina and Georgia coastal 48 (managed-coastal, broader appetite than Florida or Louisiana), Colorado 52 (managed-wildfire, wildland-urban-interface non-renewal risk), Northeast 72 (standard-northeast), Midwest 74 (standard-midwest), neutral fallback 58. Six weighted drivers: current insurance load and benchmark position 20% (insuranceLoad.status: below-band 82, in-band 68, above-band 38; constrained-coastal or wildfire-constrained state amplifier subtracts 4-6), climate-adjusted insurance forecast 20% (climateInsuranceForecast.band: no-uplift 84, modest 64, material 38, severe 22), geographic peril exposure 20% (geoRiskOverlay.climateRiskBand: low 84, moderate 64, elevated 38, high 22), environmental and brownfield friction 15% (clean-site-likely 78, manageable-diligence 60, environmental-watch 40, remediation-sensitive 24; brownfield remediation-overhang floors at 22, funding-gap at 36; lender escrow high subtracts 6), operating margin absorption capacity 15% (expanding 78, stable 62, compressing 36; y1 margin 60%-plus adds 4, under 35% subtracts 6), state and regulatory insurance-market friction 10% (state classification score with neutral fallback). Carrier availability score surfaces independently as a focused blend of geo peril 40%, climate insurance 30%, state friction 30%. Renewal shock risk classification from climateInsuranceForecast.band crossed with insuranceLoad.status: severe forecast equals high regardless; material forecast plus above-band equals high; material alone equals elevated; modest plus above-band equals elevated; modest alone equals moderate; no-uplift equals low. When forecast has no geo coverage, fallback to insuranceLoad.status: above-band reads elevated, otherwise moderate. Deductible reset risk classification from geoRiskOverlay.climateRiskBand crossed with forecast band: high peril equals high; elevated peril plus material or severe forecast equals high; elevated peril alone equals elevated; moderate peril plus material or severe forecast equals elevated; moderate peril alone equals moderate; low peril equals low; no geo coverage defaults to moderate. Lender exception risk classification from environmental and brownfield bands: brownfield remediation-overhang or lenderEscrowRisk high equals high; env remediation-sensitive equals high; brownfield funding-gap or lenderEscrowRisk elevated equals elevated; env environmental-watch equals elevated; geo high climate band equals elevated; env manageable-diligence equals moderate; geo elevated equals moderate; otherwise low. Expected renewal load bps reads from climateInsuranceForecast.climateSurchargePct times 10,000 when forecast has geo coverage, null otherwise. Bands: standard-market (composite score 78-plus, renewal shock at most moderate, no high lender exception or deductible reset risk), monitored-renewal (63-77, or composite 78-plus with elevated renewal shock), constrained-carrier-market (48-62, or composite 48-plus with high renewal shock or deductible reset or lender exception), coverage-friction-risk (under 48, or composite under 48 with any high risk dimension), not-assessable. Hard floors prevent standard-market when any single risk dimension reads high regardless of composite score. Memo surface: verdict banner with band, score, renewal shock risk, and carrier availability score; four-stat headline (expected renewal load bps, deductible reset risk, lender exception risk, renewal shock risk); six-driver weighted score table with status, contribution, and interpretation; diligence actions tied to three-carrier-quote confirmation (always), renewal stress at 1.5x current premium when renewal shock is elevated or high, peril-specific deductible confirmation when deductible reset is elevated or high, lender exception disclosure on day one when lender exception is elevated or high, admitted-vs-surplus-lines market check in constrained coastal states, defensible-space and Class A roof requirements in California, layered tower placement on high peril, margin-cushion sizing on compressing margin trend; 2-4 deal implications by band including the explicit framing that coverage can become a year-by-year procurement exercise on coverage-friction-risk deals and that lender insurance exceptions can affect financing terms directly. Module degrades gracefully when any individual upstream module is absent; drivers default to neutral scores with explicit fallback interpretation. Type-name corrections: spec referenced climateAdjustedInsuranceForecast.ts and operatingMarginTrend.ts filenames; live filenames are climateInsuranceForecast.ts (type ClimateInsuranceForecast, no Adjusted in the name) and operatingMargin.ts (type OperatingMarginTrend, file is operatingMargin.ts not operatingMarginTrend.ts). Insurance carrier availability is a deterministic underwriting screen. It is not an insurance quote, broker recommendation, policy review, lender approval, or legal opinion.
Phase 3 continues: Zoning and Entitlement Constraint Index, Environmental Site Condition Risk Index, and Brownfield Remediation Reserve Adequacy all land. Memo now classifies approval posture, density sensitivity, parking relief need, adaptive reuse fit, and nonconforming-use status from jurisdiction-tier priors and deal-note cues, plus a deterministic environmental diligence triage that surfaces inferred prior-use history, expected review intensity, Phase II probability, vapor intrusion risk, floodplain exposure, brownfield redevelopment risk, and estimated diligence delay months, plus a brownfield reserve sufficiency screen that turns site-condition risk into an estimated remediation reserve, available reserve capacity, funding gap, coverage ratio, expected delay, and lender escrow read on every memo where the deal carries environmental exposure. 106 Phase 3 modules cumulative.
Environmental Site Condition Risk tells the IC whether a site carries environmental diligence exposure. Zoning and Entitlement Constraint Index tells the IC whether approvals may slow execution. This module answers the missing IC question: does the deal have enough reserve capacity to absorb remediation cost, lender escrow, delay, and environmental diligence before the return path breaks. It converts upstream site-condition risk into a deterministic reserve sufficiency read; it is not a cleanup budget, environmental report, legal opinion, or lender requirement. Renders only for deals where the upstream environmental severity is at the assessable threshold (manageable-diligence, environmental-watch, or remediation-sensitive) or the deal context surfaces environmental, redevelopment, adaptive reuse, industrial, mixed-use, prior-use, brownfield, floodplain, vapor, or remediation cues. Clean-site deals return not-applicable; deals without price, hold, or environmental classification also return not-applicable. Reserve need sizing is a deterministic prior keyed on the upstream use-history and review-intensity combination from the environmental module: brownfield-or-heavy-risk plus remediation-plan-needed 8.0% of purchase price; brownfield plus phase-ii-likely 5.0%; brownfield baseline 3.5%; industrial-or-auto-exposure plus remediation-plan-needed 4.0%; industrial plus phase-ii-likely 2.5%; industrial plus enhanced-phase-i 1.5%; industrial baseline 1.2%; adaptive-reuse-or-legacy plus phase-ii-likely 1.5%; adaptive-reuse plus enhanced-phase-i 0.75%; adaptive-reuse baseline 0.5%; standard-commercial plus phase-ii-likely 1.0%; standard plus enhanced-phase-i 0.5%; standard baseline 0.25%; clean-operating-history 0.10%. Adders stack: vapor intrusion elevated plus 1.25%, moderate plus 0.5%; floodplain elevated plus 0.75%, moderate plus 0.25%; brownfield redevelopment elevated plus 1.5%, moderate plus 0.75%. Capacity sizing pulls reserveAdequacy.reservesAvgOverHold times hold period as the operating reserve floor, plus a fraction (25%) of below-band acquisition-basis cushion when acquisitionBasis.status is below-band. Funding gap is the difference between need and capacity, floored at zero. Coverage ratio is capacity divided by need, null when need is zero. Expected delay months reads from environmentalSiteConditionRiskIndex.estimatedDiligenceDelayMonths. Lender escrow risk is classified from upstream environmental severity: high for remediation-sensitive band or brownfield-or-heavy-risk use history or remediation-plan-needed review intensity; elevated for phase-ii-likely or industrial-or-auto-exposure or vapor intrusion elevated; moderate for adaptive-reuse-or-legacy or enhanced-phase-i or vapor moderate; low otherwise. Six weighted drivers: environmental site condition severity 30% (band-driven: clean-site-likely 84, manageable-diligence 68, environmental-watch 44, remediation-sensitive 22), available reserves and capex capacity 25% (reserveAdequacy status: adequate 80, thin 48, under-reserved 24, fallback neutral 50 when module did not run), delay and entitlement interaction 15% (expectedDelayMonths base banded: under 2 months 80, 2-6 months 60, 7-12 months 38, over 12 months 18; zoning band overlay nudges: approval-constrained minus 12 and adds critical-path note, entitlement-sensitive minus 8 and adds public-hearing note, ministerial-review minus 2, as-of-right-likely plus 2), lender escrow and financing friction 15% (escrow risk band: low 82, moderate 64, elevated 42, high 22; interpretation tracks the specific lender environmental review posture), acquisition basis cushion 10% (below-band 78, in-band 58, above-band 32, fallback neutral 55), construction-cost inflation 5% (below 5% YoY 70, 5-7% 56, above 7% 36; capex-heavy minus 8 with overrun-risk note; implied capex curve in capex-burdened or maintenance-drag band minus 6 with compounding-drag note). Bands: reserve-covered (composite score 78-plus, coverage 1.25x or higher, no high escrow risk), reserve-watch (63-77, coverage 1.0x or moderate site risk), funding-gap (48-62 or coverage 0.70-0.99x), remediation-overhang (composite less than 48, coverage less than 0.70x, brownfield-or-heavy-risk plus severe delay over 12 months, or remediation-sensitive band with thin coverage), not-assessable. Hard floors prevent reserve-covered or reserve-watch verdicts when brownfield-or-heavy-risk pairs with thin coverage or severe delay regardless of composite score. Memo surface: verdict banner with band, score, reserve need dollars, coverage ratio percent; four-stat headline (reserve need, reserve capacity, funding gap, expected delay months); two-cell escrow-and-coverage strip (lender escrow risk, coverage ratio); six-driver weighted score table with status, contribution, and interpretation; diligence actions tied to reserve sizing relative to purchase price with explicit working estimate, funding gap remediation (price chip, lender escrow, or LP equity), lender environmental review timing (day-one disclosure when escrow risk elevated or high), state brownfield program enrollment for brownfield use history, environmental diligence runway in the LOI exclusivity period when delay exceeds 6 months, joint zoning and environmental sequencing when zoning is also flagged, basis-above-band re-cut warnings, and construction-cost inflation overrun buffers when YoY inflation is at 5% or above; 2-4 deal implications by band including the explicit framing that the environmental track is the critical path on remediation-overhang deals and the funding gap dollar value when coverage is thin. Module degrades gracefully when reserveAdequacy is not computed (capacity falls back to 1.5% of price as conservative floor; capacity driver scores neutral 50), when acquisitionBasis is absent (cushion driver scores neutral 55), when constructionCostInflation is absent (construction driver scores neutral 55), when zoning is not applicable (delay-interaction driver applies no overlay nudge), and when impliedCapexYieldCurve is absent (no compounding-drag note). Brownfield reserve adequacy is a deterministic underwriting screen. It is not an environmental report, legal opinion, remediation estimate, or lender requirement.
Environmental diligence is one of the few areas where a deal can look attractive in the model and still be unfinanceable, delayed, or repriced after third-party reports. This module is a deterministic early-warning screen, not a Phase I ESA, Phase II investigation, lender environmental review, or counsel opinion. It tells the IC which deals need environmental diligence front-loaded before price, debt, schedule, or insurance assumptions become trusted. Auto-applicable across CRE; renders for any deal with property type plus enough basic context. For clean deals the panel reads as a concise low-risk panel; for legacy or industrial-history deals it surfaces the additional reports the IC should price into the timeline before close. Use-history classification from text cues in property type, deal name, address, notes, and tenant labels: clean-operating-history (multifamily, SFR, BTR, student housing, senior housing with no adverse cues), standard-commercial (office, retail, hotel, mixed-use with no adverse cues), adaptive-reuse-or-legacy-commercial (conversion, change-of-use, adaptive reuse, pre-war or historic building, lab repositioning, industrial property type without explicit contamination cues), industrial-or-auto-exposure (industrial cue, auto repair, body shop, dry cleaner, two-or-more heavy cues), brownfield-or-heavy-risk (brownfield, manufacturing, plating, chemical, refinery, landfill, gas station, UST, AST, leaking tank, petroleum, fuel storage). Heavy cue dictionary: industrial, manufacturing, plating, chemical, dry cleaner, gas station, service station, fuel station, auto repair, body shop, auto shop, storage yard, fuel yard, rail, railyard, port, wharf, landfill, brownfield, former mill, mill site, refinery, warehouse conversion, environmental, remediation, vapor, UST, AST, asbestos, lead paint, PCB, petroleum, diesel spill, leaking tank. Moderate cue dictionary: auto, automotive, service center, laundromat, laundry, printing, print shop, medical, lab, laboratory, life science, biotech, wet lab, research park, former office, office-to-residential, office-to-lab, adaptive reuse, repositioning, change of use, conversion, older building, pre-war, prewar, historic. Flood cue dictionary: floodplain, flood plain, flood zone, waterfront, river, creek, lake, harbor, bayfront, tidal, wetland, marsh, estuary. Six weighted drivers: prior-use and contamination cue risk 25% (use-history banded baseline: clean 82, standard commercial 74, adaptive reuse or legacy 56, industrial or auto 38, brownfield or heavy 22; plus heavy-cue counts and absence-of-cues adjustments), site-history and tenant-use cues 20% (three-or-more high-attention cues like dry cleaner, gas station, auto repair, UST or AST, manufacturing or plating, or lab or biotech scores 24; two cues 38; one cue 50; adaptive-reuse or conversion only 56; historic only 60; clean 74), flood, water, and climate adjacency 15% (overlay-driven: GeoRiskOverlayResult flood score, hurricane score haircut, ClimateTransitionRisk compositeTransitionRisk haircut, plus flood text cues; elevated 32, moderate 52, low 70, unknown 58), adaptive reuse and redevelopment intensity 15% (adaptive reuse or conversion 44, industrial or lab repositioning 42, historic-building 54; tightened when zoning module flags entitlement-sensitive or approval-constrained), zoning and entitlement dependency interaction 10% (zoning module band-driven: as-of-right-likely 78, ministerial-review 64, entitlement-sensitive 40, approval-constrained 24; unknown 65), reserve, capex, and acquisition-basis cushion 15% (ReserveAdequacyAnalysis status: adequate 74, thin 46, under-reserved 28; ImpliedCapexYieldCurveResult band integration: capex-burdened or maintenance-drag floors at 38, self-funding or value-creating raises to 68; AcquisitionBasis status: above-band minus 6, below-band plus 4). Phase II probability classification: high for brownfield or heavy use-history or fuel tank or manufacturing or gas station or brownfield cues, moderate for industrial-or-auto-exposure or dry cleaner or auto or vapor cues or adaptive-reuse-or-legacy with lab or asbestos cues, low otherwise, unknown when use-history is unknown. Remediation reserve need classification: material for brownfield or heavy use-history or manufacturing or fuel tank or gas station or brownfield cues, modest for industrial-or-auto-exposure or dry cleaner or auto or asbestos cues, none otherwise, unknown when use-history is unknown. Vapor intrusion risk classification: elevated when vapor, dry cleaner, fuel tank, or gas station cues hit or use-history is industrial-or-auto-exposure or brownfield-or-heavy-risk; moderate for adaptive-reuse-or-legacy or lab or manufacturing; low otherwise. Floodplain or water risk: elevated above 65 composite from geo and climate scores plus cues, moderate 45-65, low below 45, unknown when no geo or climate overlay coverage and no flood text cues. Brownfield redevelopment risk: elevated when heavy exposure plus either adaptive reuse cue or tough zoning posture, moderate when heavy exposure alone or adaptive reuse plus tough zoning, low otherwise. Estimated diligence delay months computed from review intensity baseline (standard-phase-i 1, enhanced-phase-i 2, phase-ii-likely 3, remediation-plan-needed 6) plus brownfield bumps (elevated plus 3, moderate plus 1). Bands: clean-site-likely (composite score 78-plus with no heavy cues, standard Phase I likely enough), manageable-diligence (63-77, diligence required but normal IC timing), environmental-watch (48-62, enhanced Phase I or targeted consultant work), remediation-sensitive (less than 48, Phase II or remediation plan may affect timing, debt, or price), not-assessable. Hard floors prevent clean-site-likely or manageable-diligence verdicts when heavy contamination cues are present, regardless of upstream cushion. Memo surface: verdict banner with band, score, inferred use history, and review intensity; composite score bar with band threshold ticks at 48, 63, 78; four-stat headline strip (Phase II probability, remediation reserve need, vapor intrusion risk, estimated diligence delay months); two-cell flood-and-brownfield strip (floodplain or water risk, brownfield redevelopment risk); six-driver weighted score table with contribution and interpretation; diligence actions tied to review intensity (standard ASTM E1527-21 Phase I, enhanced Phase I with Sanborn and regulatory database deep-dive, Phase II pre-scope, remediation-experienced consultant and counsel kickoff, state brownfield program enrollment check), to specific cue hits (asbestos and lead paint surveys for pre-1980 buildings, UST and AST documentation, dry-cleaner PCE and TCE plume mapping, soil-vapor sampling, FEMA flood map review, environmental contingency reserve sizing, implied capex curve reconciliation), and to lender environmental review timing; 2-4 deal implications by band including the explicit framing that environmental track can become the critical path on remediation-sensitive deals and the estimated environmental diligence runway in months. Module degrades gracefully when GeoRiskOverlayResult is not covered, ClimateTransitionRisk is not computed, or upstream overlays are absent; drivers default to text-cue and use-history baselines with neutral status. Type-name corrections: spec referenced ReserveAdequacyResult and GeographicRiskOverlayResult upstream types that do not exist in the codebase; the live names are ReserveAdequacyAnalysis (from lib/engine/reserveAdequacy.ts) and GeoRiskOverlayResult (from lib/engine/geoRiskOverlay.ts, a discriminated union with the not-covered branch handled explicitly). Environmental Site Condition Risk Index is a deterministic diligence screen. It is not a Phase I ESA, Phase II ESA, remediation budget, lender environmental approval, legal opinion, or consultant report.
Zoning posture and entitlement risk shape what a deal can actually build, lease, or convert. A pro forma that assumes as-of-right execution reads differently when the asset sits in a high-discretion jurisdiction, requires a special permit or variance, leans on adaptive reuse, or carries a nonconforming use that constrains future redevelopment. This module classifies the approval posture and entitlement constraint from jurisdiction-tier priors and deal-note cues, then surfaces the gap between as-of-right execution and discretionary approval risk. Auto-applicable for any deal with zoning, entitlement, variance, special permit, ZBA, BZA, conditional use, rezoning, upzoning, downzoning, PUD, planned unit development, master plan, specific plan, nonconforming, grandfathered, historic district, landmark, conversion, change of use, FAR, density bonus, inclusionary, as-of-right, by-right, or matter-of-right cues in property type, deal name, address, or notes; also auto-applicable for Mixed-Use deals (operating with both residential and retail components typically involves zoning interaction) and ground-up development plays. Non-applicable deals return the not-applicable verdict and the memo section does not render. Jurisdiction tier classification from address: high-discretion coastal (Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, Bronx, Staten Island, San Francisco, Boston, Washington DC, Santa Monica, Berkeley) with baseline 36, approval-time multiplier 1.6x, variance success 38%, community-board influence high, master-plan complexity high; dense urban infill (Seattle, Portland, Oakland, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Chicago, Brooklyn outer, Queens outer, downtown Austin) baseline 50, 1.3x, 52%, moderate community influence; university town (Ithaca, Ann Arbor, Madison, State College, Chapel Hill, Boulder, Gainesville, College Station, Bloomington, Athens) baseline 52, 1.2x, 55%, moderate community influence; Sunbelt growth (Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Nashville, Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Charlotte, Raleigh, Austin suburbs) baseline 70, 1.0x, 72%; suburban (strip, suburb, regional, highway, freeway cues) baseline 68, 1.0x, 70%; unknown jurisdiction baseline 55, 1.1x, 60%. Approval posture classification: as-of-right (by-right, as-of-right, matter-of-right cues with no discretionary cues), administrative-approval (site plan, building permit, administrative review cues), special-permit (special permit, conditional use, ZBA, BZA, variance, exception cues), full-discretionary (rezoning, upzoning, downzoning, PUD, planned unit development, master plan, specific plan, comprehensive plan amendment, general plan amendment, community board cues). Adaptive reuse cue detection (conversion, change of use, adaptive reuse, repositioning, repurpose) with stronger penalty in high-discretion coastal jurisdictions. Historic and landmark cue detection (historic, landmark, preservation, designated, contributing, district) penalizes adaptive reuse fit and adds a Section 106 / SHPO callout when triggered. Nonconforming-use cue detection (nonconforming, grandfathered, legal non-conforming) flags rebuild and expansion constraints; nonconforming status drops adaptive reuse fit and limits density bonus availability. Density sensitivity classification: low (Sunbelt suburban, by-right cues), moderate (university town, dense urban infill without density-bonus cue), elevated (high-discretion coastal, community-board cues, downzoning history references), high (heritage district overlay, view-corridor restriction, height-cap cue, density transfer cue). Parking relief need classification: none (by-right cues, suburban parking-rich profile), minor (single-stall relief request, transit-adjacency cue with mild parking ratio shortfall), moderate (multi-stall variance, residential infill with sub-benchmark parking), substantial (transit-zoning overlay reliance, parking-maximum jurisdiction with elevated demand classification, parking-relief explicit in notes). Six weighted drivers: as-of-right execution clarity 30% (approval posture banded: as-of-right 86, administrative-approval 70, special-permit 50, full-discretionary 28; jurisdiction tier nudges plus or minus), density sensitivity and FAR headroom 20% (band: low 80, moderate 64, elevated 44, high 26; density-bonus cue adds 8, downzoning cue subtracts 12), parking and access relief feasibility 15% (need band: none 82, minor 64, moderate 44, substantial 26; parking-friction overlay band integration: access-advantaged plus 8, parking-supported plus 4, manageable-friction minus 4, access-constrained minus 12), adaptive reuse and conversion fit 15% (cue-driven baseline: no-conversion 70, conversion-light 58, full-adaptive-reuse 42; historic-district cue subtracts 14, nonconforming subtracts 10, jurisdiction tier 1.0x to 0.7x), nonconforming-use risk and rebuild constraint 10% (status banded: conforming 80, nonconforming-rebuildable 56, nonconforming-restricted 32, nonconforming-loss-of-rights 18), supply and pipeline context 10% (supply pipeline overlay band-driven: constrained 78, balanced 64, moderate-oversupply 46, heavy-oversupply 28; supply-constrained jurisdictions amplify entitlement value, oversupplied jurisdictions undercut it). Approval-time months estimate computed from posture baseline times jurisdiction multiplier (as-of-right 2 months, administrative 4-6, special-permit 8-14, full-discretionary 14-30; high-discretion coastal multiplies 1.6x). Variance success likelihood from jurisdiction profile with cue adjustments (community board strong subtract 10, neighborhood opposition cue subtract 15, sponsor track-record cue add 8). Community-board influence tier from jurisdiction (high coastal, moderate dense infill and university, low Sunbelt and suburban). Bands: as-of-right-execution (composite score 78-plus and posture is as-of-right or administrative), entitlement-supported (63-77, special permit feasible with manageable approval-time and supportive variance success), discretionary-approval-risk (48-62, special-permit or full-discretionary posture with elevated approval-time and parking or density relief uncertainty), entitlement-blocked (less than 48, full-discretionary posture in high-discretion jurisdiction with nonconforming-loss-of-rights, historic restriction, or substantial parking-relief need that the path does not credibly support), not-applicable, not-assessable. Memo surface: verdict banner with band, score, jurisdiction tier, and approval posture; composite score bar with band threshold ticks at 48, 63, 78; four-cell risk strip (as-of-right likely, density sensitivity, parking relief, adaptive reuse fit); two-cell nonconforming-and-posture strip (nonconforming-use status, community-board influence); six-driver weighted score table; diligence actions tied to posture severity (confirm jurisdiction zoning code and overlay districts at parcel level when posture is special-permit or full-discretionary, identify zoning counsel with track record in the specific jurisdiction, model approval-time months into hold and stabilization timeline, reserve entitlement reserves for legal and consulting fees, surface variance precedent and community-board posture before LOI, validate nonconforming rebuild and expansion rights with zoning officer when status flagged, scope SHPO / Section 106 process when historic district cue triggers, confirm parking-maximum or minimum exposure when relief need is moderate or substantial); deal implications by band including the explicit framing that as-of-right execution is the underwriting baseline and that discretionary approval risk is structurally different from market risk because it cannot be hedged with capital structure alone. Module degrades gracefully when parking-demand and mixed-use synergy overlays are unavailable; drivers default to jurisdiction-tier and cue-derived baselines with neutral status. Type-name corrections: Codex spec referenced TransitOrientedAccessibilityPremium and DevelopmentFeasibilityIndex upstream modules that do not yet exist in the codebase; the transit-adjacency signal is read through the parking-demand-and-access-friction overlay instead, and the development-feasibility cross-check is absorbed into the as-of-right-execution-clarity and density-sensitivity drivers directly. Zoning and Entitlement Constraint Index is a deterministic zoning posture overlay. It is not legal advice, a zoning counsel opinion, a title report, or an entitlement guarantee.
Phase 3 continues: thirteen new specialty and macro overlays land today. Distress-to-Stabilized IRR Path Model, Macroeconomic Regime Switcher, Data Center Power Capacity Tracker, Life Sciences Tenant Demand Tracker, Workforce Housing Premium Tracker, Single Family Rental Yield Index, Healthcare REIT Sub-Sector Analysis, Student Housing Demand Tracker, Retail Anchor Durability Tracker, Retail Trade Area Leakage and Capture Analysis, Mixed-Use Synergy and Conflict Index, Parking Demand and Access Friction Index, and Office Obsolescence and Leasing Friction Index all land. Auto-applicable signal sets across data-center, life-sciences, workforce-housing, SFR / BTR, healthcare, student-housing, retail, mixed-use, parking-sensitive, and office deals join the engine alongside the macro regime transition map. 103 Phase 3 modules cumulative.
Office underwriting is now dominated by functional obsolescence, tenant decision friction, lease-up drag, access quality, and cap-rate reset risk. A conventional pro forma can show an acceptable IRR while the asset is actually fighting weak tenant demand, long downtime, high TI/LC burden, or a building-quality mismatch. This module tells the IC whether an office deal is leasing-relevant or structurally obsolete. Renders only for office-relevant deals (Office property type, Mixed-Use with office cues, or any deal flagged with office, class A, class B, trophy, tower, plaza, corporate park, creative office, or medical office signatures in property type, deal name, address, notes, or tenant labels). Non-office deals without those cues return not-applicable; memo section does not render. Six use cases with seeded priors: CBD trophy (obsolescence resistance 82, tenant demand 78, leasing friction 70, TI/LC reserve 90 per SF, downtime baseline 8 months, stabilized occupancy 90%, amenity 82, cap-rate reset 70), Class A suburban (70 / 64 / 60 / 65 / 12 mo / 88% / 64 / 58), commodity office (44 / 40 / 38 / 50 / 18 mo / 82% / 42 / 36), medical office (76 / 78 / 72 / 80 / 9 mo / 92% / 64 / 72; lower remote-work shock, longer lease tenure), creative office (58 / 56 / 52 / 95 / 14 mo / 86% / 72 / 50; selective demand, amenity dependent, higher capital burden), mixed-use office (62 / 60 / 58 / 70 / 12 mo / 86% / 70 / 56). Inferred class trophy / class-a / class-b / class-c / unknown drives bumps on obsolescence and demand: trophy +8 obsolescence and +6 demand, class-a +4 and +2, class-b -6 and -8, class-c -14 and -16. Six weighted drivers: tenant demand and rent relevance 25% (use-case and class baseline plus net effective rent overlay: 20%+ NER discount -8, 10%-or-below +4), functional quality and class proxy 20%, rollover downtime and lease-up friction 20% (use-case downtime baseline scaled by tenant concentration max-annual rollover: 40%+ rollover scales downtime 1.4x and friction -12; 25-40% scales 1.2x and -6; high-tier risk -6 additional, low-tier +4), TI/LC and capital burden 15% (use-case TI/LC reserve baseline per SF), access and amenity support 10% (parking access friction overlay band-driven adjustment: access-advantaged +10, parking-supported +4, manageable-friction -4, access-constrained -12), cap-rate reset and exit liquidity pressure 10% (cap-rate persistence forecast band-driven: persistent +8, mild +2, active mean reversion -4, reset risk -14). Bands: institutional-quality (score 78+, tenant demand supportive, obsolescence risk low), leasing-relevant (63-77, financeable with active tenant management), selective-demand (48-62, demand exists but pricing and capital plan must reflect leasing-friction reality), functional-obsolescence-risk (less than 48, leasing friction or building mismatch dominates), not-assessable. Memo surface: verdict banner with band, score, use case, and inferred class; four-stat headline (leasing friction score, obsolescence risk score, estimated downtime months, TI/LC reserve per SF); composite score bar with band threshold ticks at 48, 63, 78; three-cell strip (tenant demand, access + amenity, cap-rate reset); six-driver weighted score table; underwriting actions (verify three credible tenant prospects when demand soft, confirm building system condition and modernization capex when obsolescence flagged, reserve estimated downtime months per rollover, size TI/LC reserve into capital plan especially when NER discount elevated, address parking and amenity profile when soft, buffer exit cap when reset risk flagged, special action when class-c is detected); deal implications by band including the institutional bifurcation framing (trophy and Class A absorb demand while commodity and Class C continue to face structural friction). Module degrades gracefully when net effective rent, tenant concentration, cap-rate persistence, or parking access overlays are unavailable; drivers default to use-case baselines with neutral status. Type-name correction: Codex spec referenced a RolloverDowntimeResult upstream module that does not yet exist in the codebase; the rollover-and-downtime driver instead reads tenant-concentration max-annual rollover concentration as the live signal and the use-case downtime baseline as the seeded floor. Office Obsolescence and Leasing Friction Index is a deterministic leasing-friction overlay. It is not a broker opinion, an appraisal, or a tenant demand forecast.
Parking and access friction can make or break retail, mixed-use, medical office, suburban office, student housing, and multifamily deals. The same rent roll can underwrite differently if customers, tenants, patients, or residents cannot easily reach the asset. This module classifies the use case from property type and upstream signals: medical office routes through the healthcare sub-sector module, student housing through the student tracker, mixed-use through mix detection, retail through the anchor tracker or revenue fields, plus office, multifamily, industrial, and hotel fallbacks. Benchmark parking ratios seeded per institutional norms: grocery and daily-needs retail 4.0-5.0 per 1,000 SF, neighborhood retail 3.5-4.5, restaurant-heavy 8.0-12.0, medical office 4.5-5.5, general office 2.5-3.5, multifamily 1.0-1.5 per unit, student housing 0.5-1.0 per bed, hotel 0.7-1.1 per key, industrial 0.5-1.5 per 1,000 SF. Location profile adjusts the benchmark via a multiplier: urban CBD strong transit offset and 0.55x benchmark (Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, downtown San Francisco, downtown Boston, Chicago Loop and Near North, downtown Seattle, Washington DC), dense urban infill 0.70x (Oakland, Philadelphia, Baltimore, downtown Austin, downtown Portland, South Lake Union), university town 0.80x (Ithaca, Ann Arbor, Madison, State College, Chapel Hill, Boulder, Gainesville, College Station, Bloomington, Athens), sunbelt suburban 1.00x (Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Nashville, Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Charlotte, Raleigh, Austin), suburban or regional 1.10x (strip mall, strip center, power center, regional mall, highway, freeway, interstate cues). Sponsor-supplied parking ratio is parsed from deal notes via regex patterns (stalls per 1,000 SF, stalls per unit, spaces per bed, parking ratio explicit); when present, the module scores against the location-adjusted benchmark. When absent, the module scores the benchmark pressure rather than pretending precision and caps the score ceiling at 78 with the supply driver marked watch so the IC sees the missing precision. Six weighted drivers: parking supply versus benchmark or inferred adequacy 30% (ratio versus location-adjusted benchmark band: 86 if clears by 5%-plus, 72 if in band, 50 if 8-25% deficit, 28 if 25%-plus deficit), transit and walkability offset 20% (strong 84, moderate 64, limited 38, none 24), use-case access dependency 15% (low 78, moderate 60, high 38), curb and ingress-egress friction 15% (low 78, moderate 60, high 38; restaurant-heavy retail compounds curb friction with delivery and rideshare congestion), upstream retail or mixed-use conflict signal 10% (mixed-use synergy band-driven: integrated 76 down to operational-friction 30; retail trade-area leakage as fallback), tenant or customer sensitivity 10% (medical office 30 with highest patient sensitivity, retail 38 with customer-routing sensitivity, office 54, mixed-use 48, student housing 64, multifamily 60, hotel 56, industrial 70; strong transit offset adds back 12, moderate adds back 6). Bands: access-advantaged (score 78-plus), parking-supported (64-77), manageable-friction (49-63), access-constrained (less than 49), not-assessable. Industrial and hotel deals auto-skip unless notes mention parking, access, transit, walkability, ingress, curb, or loading-dock cues, since those formats carry property-type-specific access dynamics (industrial prioritizes truck access; hotel uses valet and drive-court). Memo surface: verdict banner with band, score, and use case; four-stat headline (inferred parking ratio, benchmark ratio, transit offset, curb friction); access friction gauge with band threshold ticks at 22, 36, and 51 percent friction; three-cell strip (parking gap, access dependency, transit and curb combination); six-driver weighted score table; underwriting actions tied to missing sponsor ratio, parking deficit, transit absence, curb friction, retail trade area competitiveness, medical office patient sensitivity, and mixed-use operational friction; deal implications by band. Parking demand and access friction are deterministic underwriting proxies. They are not a traffic study, a zoning opinion, or a parking-code compliance review.
Mixed-use is not just multifamily plus retail. The components can reinforce each other (residential demand supports retail foot traffic, retail amenities lift residential renewal velocity, shared expense allocation reads credible) or create internal friction (over-scaled retail program, dominant commercial NOI share, above-market rents, single-tenant concentration, shared parking and loading conflict). This module applies only to deals classified as Mixed-Use or that carry both residential units and retail or commercial SF; single-use deals return not-applicable. Residential and commercial NOI shares computed from Y1 proforma (residential GPR less vacancy versus retail GPR less vacancy plus free-rent abatement plus other income) and approximated via revenue share times Y1 NOI. Retail SF per residential unit serves as the mix-balance proxy. Seven weighted drivers: residential and retail revenue balance 20% (40-60% residential share is the integrated sweet spot scoring 82; 30-75% supports complementary stack at 68; 15-85% leans materially at 50; thinner mixes get 24-36; retail SF per unit nudges plus 4 when below 50, minus 8 when above 200), retail tenant durability and trade-area capture 20% (retail anchor durability band: necessity-anchored 82, durable-neighborhood 66, cyclical 44, fragility 26; plus trade-area leakage adjustment of plus 6 for dominant capture down to minus 10 for leakage risk), NOI diversification and concentration 15% (tenant concentration risk tier: low 78, moderate 60, high 36; commercial-dominant NOI compounds penalty), expense allocation credibility 15% (OpEx benchmark status: in-band 74, below-band 44, above-band 38 against the Mixed-Use 35-50% EGI band), demographic support 10%, vacancy and rollover friction 10% (max annual rollover 25-40% triggers penalty), operational complexity penalty 10% (excess retail SF per unit above 250, commercial-dominant NOI above 70%, above-market rents, OpEx above-band each deduct; necessity or neighborhood retail anchor adds back). Bands: integrated-mixed-use-premium (score 78-plus), complementary-use-stack (63-77), neutral-coexistence (48-62), operational-friction (less than 48), not-assessable. Synergy premium bps and conflict penalty bps are deterministic return-quality nudges per band: premium +35 bps for integrated, +15 bps for complementary, conflict penalty -40 bps for friction (only attached to the IRR sizing conversation, not auto-applied to the math). Memo surface: verdict banner with band, score, and premium or penalty bps; four-stat strip (residential NOI share, commercial NOI share, retail SF per unit, synergy or conflict bps); six-row synergy matrix (resident demand supports retail, retail amenities support residential rent, shared expenses credible, retail vacancy contained, tenant concentration manageable, parking and access and loading conflict limited) with status indicators sourced from the upstream retail anchor durability and trade-area leakage modules when available; seven-driver weighted score table with contribution and interpretation; underwriting actions tied to balance, durability, diversification, expense allocation, friction, and complexity (including a re-underwrite recommendation when revenue split implies a single-use deal with a token secondary component, a dedicated mixed-use property manager requirement when complexity penalty is active, and an external trade-area validation requirement when retail SF per residential unit exceeds 250); deal implications by band with explicit framing that mixed-use deals carry operating-cost complexity single-use deals never face (shared utilities, CAM allocation between residential and commercial tenants, life-safety code overlap, parking ratios, loading dock conflict, operating-hour mismatches). Cherry Street as the canonical mixed-use demo deal now reads through this index directly: a 24-unit residential program over 4,200 SF of retail at 132 Cherry Street will surface its specific synergy and conflict profile in the memo. Mixed-Use Synergy and Conflict Index is a deterministic mixed-use operating overlay. It is not a leasing forecast, an appraisal, a zoning opinion, or a site-planning study.
Retail Anchor Durability classifies tenant-mix durability. This module adds the next layer: whether the asset's trade area can actually support the underwritten retail revenue. It estimates retail demand capture, leakage risk, necessity spend depth, competing-node pressure, and whether the deal is drawing from a defensible local trade area or relying on fragile discretionary traffic. Auto-applicable for Retail and Mixed-Use deals plus any deal with retail SF, retail rent, or retail cues in tenant labels, deal name, or notes. Non-retail deals without those cues return not-applicable. Trade-area radius computed from metro geography tier multiplied by a format multiplier. Six metro tiers seeded: urban infill (Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, San Francisco, downtown Boston, Chicago Loop / Near North, Seattle downtown) with 1.0-mile baseline, household depth 86, necessity 82, discretionary 80, elevated competing-node base; university town (Ithaca, Ann Arbor, Madison, State College, Chapel Hill, Boulder, Gainesville, College Station, Bloomington, Athens, Lawrence) with 2.5-mile baseline, household depth 68, necessity 74, discretionary 56, low competing base; dense suburban (Austin, Dallas, Plano, Frisco, Atlanta, Alpharetta, Nashville, Phoenix, Scottsdale, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando) with 3.5-mile baseline, household depth 74; suburban strip / power center (Denver, Aurora, Portland, Hillsboro, Charlotte, Raleigh, Durham, Columbus, Salt Lake) with 4.5-mile baseline; regional retail hub (King of Prussia, Paramus, Garden State Plaza, mall, power center cues) with 12-mile baseline and high competing-node base; tertiary fallback with 5-mile baseline. Format multipliers: grocery 0.7x for tight local demand, service 0.6x for hyper-local, neighborhood strip 0.8x, restaurant 1.1x, apparel and discretionary 1.4x for regional pull, mixed 1.0x. Capture rates seeded per format (necessity capture midpoints: grocery 70%, service 75%, neighborhood 60%, restaurant 50%, apparel 22%, mixed 52%; discretionary capture midpoints: grocery 40%, service 30%, neighborhood 45%, restaurant 55%, apparel 55%, mixed 50%) and adjusted by household depth factor (capped at 0.6-1.3) and competing-node pressure (capture multiplied by 0.85-0.92 when pressure is elevated or high). Competing-node pressure adjusted by supply pipeline (heavy or moderate oversupply elevates; constrained de-escalates) and by regional retail hub tier (elevates one tier). Leakage risk classification: low when blended capture is 65% or higher and competing pressure is low; moderate at 55%-plus with low or moderate pressure; elevated at 40%-plus; high below 40%. Seven weighted drivers: demographic income and household depth 20% (market baseline plus demographic overlay population growth and median income bumps), necessity retail support 20% (capture rate scaled by necessity-format flag), competing-node and supply pressure 15% (tier-driven with supply pipeline blending), rent comp affordability versus trade-area sales proxy 15% (below-market 76, in-band 64, above-market 36, no-comp 55), retail anchor durability read-through 15% (necessity-anchored 82, durable-neighborhood 66, cyclical 44, fragility 26), exit liquidity and buyer depth 10% (transaction liquidity band-driven), public retail sector read-through 5% (REIT positioning band-driven). Bands: dominant-local-capture (score 78-plus with low or moderate leakage risk), defensible-neighborhood-capture (62-77), competitive-trade-area (45-61), leakage-risk (less than 45), not-assessable. Memo surface: verdict banner with band, score, market, and format; four-stat headline (trade-area radius miles, necessity capture percentage, discretionary capture percentage, competing-node pressure); three-cell strip (leakage risk, demand support, competing-node pressure); seven-driver weighted score table; underwriting actions tied to household depth, necessity penetration, competing-node pressure, rent-vs-sales bar, anchor fragility, exit liquidity, and leakage severity; deal implications by band. Module references upstream retail anchor durability when available so the trade-area and tenant-mix reads are mutually consistent. Auto-skip when purchase price or hold period are missing. Retail Trade Area Leakage and Capture Analysis is a deterministic trade-area proxy. It is not a sales forecast, an appraisal, a traffic study, or a tenant-credit opinion.
Retail real estate is not one asset class. A grocery-anchored neighborhood center carries different risk than an apparel-heavy power center, a restaurant-led food hall, or a service-retail strip. Institutional buyers underwrite each retail format on a different stack of signals: anchor quality and credit, necessity orientation, co-tenancy risk, small-shop fragility, lease rollover exposure, and the durability of consumer demand for the format. This module auto-detects applicability for retail and mixed-use deals with commercial SF or retail-rent fields, plus any deal with retail cues in tenant labels, deal name, address, or notes. Non-retail deals without those cues return not-applicable and the memo section does not render. Format classification: grocery-anchored (grocery, supermarket, market, grocer, pharmacy, drugstore cues), service retail (salon, dental, medical retail, fitness, daycare, bank, cleaners, urgent care, nail), restaurant-heavy (restaurant, cafe, bar, QSR, dining, food hall, kitchen, eatery, tavern, bistro), apparel and discretionary (apparel, boutique, fashion, clothing, furniture, electronics, discretionary), neighborhood strip (strip center, strip mall, neighborhood center, inline retail, local services), mixed retail when cues exist but no single format dominates. Format priors: grocery-anchored carries the most durable institutional retail profile with anchor quality 82, necessity 88, low co-tenancy and small-shop risk; service retail carries direct consumer relationships that resist e-commerce displacement with anchor 64, necessity 72, moderate risk tiers; restaurant-heavy carries higher sales volatility, fit-out and TI exposure, and operator-quality variance with anchor 50, necessity 45, elevated risk tiers; apparel and discretionary carries direct e-commerce substitution risk and cyclical consumer-spend exposure with anchor 44, necessity 32, elevated risk tiers; neighborhood strip carries mixed exposure with anchor 60, necessity 65, moderate risk tiers; mixed retail reflects the weighted blend with anchor 56, necessity 58. Seven weighted drivers: anchor quality and credit proxy 25% (format baseline plus tenant concentration largest-tenant share adjustment; concentration above 40% rent share is penalized for non-anchored formats and rewarded for grocery and service), necessity orientation 20% (format baseline), tenant diversification and HHI 15% (industry HHI band: 82 diversified, 62 moderate, 38 highly concentrated, 24 single-sector; tenant concentration risk-tier adjustment), demographic and traffic support 15% (population growth and median income bumps), rent comp positioning and occupancy cushion 10% (below-market 72, in-band 64, above-market 38, no-comp 50), supply and exit liquidity 10% (supply pipeline overlay blended with transaction liquidity tier), public retail REIT read-through 5% (REIT sector overlay positioning: 78 premium-justified, 60 in-line, 36 underpriced). Risk tier outputs adjusted by upstream signals: co-tenancy risk elevated by single-sector or highly-concentrated industry HHI; small-shop fragility elevated by high tenant concentration risk or above-market rent positioning; rollover sensitivity elevated when max annual rollover exceeds 40% of total rent. Bands: necessity-anchored (score 78-plus with necessity-oriented format like grocery, service, or strong neighborhood strip), durable-neighborhood-retail (62-77), cyclical-tenant-mix (45-61), anchor-fragility (less than 45), not-assessable. Memo surface: verdict banner with band, score, and format; retail format read-through card with anchor quality, necessity orientation, and small-shop fragility one-liner; four-cell metric strip (anchor quality, necessity orientation, co-tenancy risk, rollover sensitivity); seven-driver weighted score table; underwriting actions (diligence anchor tenant credit and lease term, map small-shop sales velocity and foot traffic, stress occupancy under single-industry shock, confirm trade-area fundamentals, stress re-leasing economics when rent is above market, identify institutional retail buyer pool when liquidity thin, reserve for rollover TI and downtime, stress against 200 bp consumer-spend slowdown for cyclical formats); deal implications by band. Module never names specific tenant brands unless they appear in user-provided tenant labels. Auto-skip when purchase price or hold period are missing. Retail anchor durability tracker is a deterministic tenant-mix overlay. It is not a tenant-credit rating, a leasing forecast, a broker opinion, or a sales forecast.